{ "ticker": { "uuid": "70ae6394-9ba3-4361-8564-b2b51db87526", "symbol": "MNTK", "name": "Montauk Renewables Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.281, "architecture_energy": 51.021, "architecture_maturity": 17.636, "architecture_confidence": 75.648, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.15, "rotation_up": 55.25, "upward_expansion": 81.08, "deceleration": 51.17, "rotation_down": 16.2, "downward_expansion": 10.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.743333, 1.693455, 1.621143, 1.563978 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.79, "trend_reference": 1.529333, "distance_from_trend": 0.170445, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.048301, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.557839, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.983284, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.01105, "excess_performance": -0.198503, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.170445, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016717, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.557839, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.149872, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.089833, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.311556, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.01105, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.078587, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 765793, "relative_activity": 0.681701, "balance": 1.078587, "dry_up": 0.858738, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128492, "annualized_volatility": 0.610108, "from_high_reference": -0.303502, "from_low_reference": 0.672897 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.529333, "fair_value_reference": 4.048301, "structural_low": 1.07, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.036263, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.106921, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.057471, "worst_return": -0.261649, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.234767, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.200047, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.0721, "worst_return": -0.316298, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.551724, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.533496, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.402612, "worst_return": -0.632616, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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4.182853, "relative_strength": -18.849598, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.190367, "energy": 9.691046, "activity_lines": [ 1.598, 1.611091, 1.530714, 1.511333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.87, "volume": 1252666, "typical_volume": 1261168.95, "trend": 1.518, "fair_value": 4.140673, "relative_strength": -0.830368, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.782925, "energy": 47.989009, "activity_lines": [ 1.69, 1.658182, 1.570095, 1.534108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.71, "volume": 1190266, "typical_volume": 1212849.35, "trend": 1.519, "fair_value": 4.097147, "relative_strength": -9.019125, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.310848, "energy": 40.732191, "activity_lines": [ 1.71, 1.67, 1.592667, 1.546495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.79, "volume": 765793, "typical_volume": 1123356.75, "trend": 1.529333, "fair_value": 4.048301, "relative_strength": -8.983284, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.280821, "energy": 51.021344, "activity_lines": [ 1.743333, 1.693455, 1.621143, 1.563978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }