{ "ticker": { "uuid": "70b3b566-47fc-40a3-99ca-3998d13bfdce", "symbol": "8085", "name": "Forward Electronics Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.406, "architecture_energy": 42.216, "architecture_maturity": 61.649, "architecture_confidence": 91.987, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.74, "rotation_up": 22.11, "upward_expansion": 5.6, "deceleration": 52.37, "rotation_down": 52.57, "downward_expansion": 78.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.236667, 11.487273, 11.948095, 12.801075 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.25, "trend_reference": 14.105, "distance_from_trend": -0.20241, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 34.182372, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.670883, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -51.552812, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.358974, "excess_performance": -0.800346, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.20241, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10897, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.670883, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017128, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.515528, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065669, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.358974, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.171284, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 650807, "relative_activity": 0.282633, "balance": 1.171284, "dry_up": 0.70394, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.135385, "annualized_volatility": 0.574316, "from_high_reference": -0.532225, "from_low_reference": 0.03211 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.105, "fair_value_reference": 34.182372, "structural_low": 10.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.05714, "positive_rate": 0.291667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.076001, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.195122, "worst_return": -0.177924, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.124794, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.229756, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.122324, "worst_return": -0.290735, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.161798, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.375213, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.451827, "worst_return": -0.389776, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }