{ "ticker": { "uuid": "70c0954b-34cd-42f3-92b2-25b25aaebb12", "symbol": "SBEM", "name": "UBS BBG USD EM Sovereign UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 61.077, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.535, "architecture_energy": 59.401, "architecture_maturity": 77.663, "architecture_confidence": 46.76, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.28, "rotation_up": 46.91, "upward_expansion": 70.17, "deceleration": 68.33, "rotation_down": 27.81, "downward_expansion": 22.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.775787, 7.779244, 7.686076, 7.610138 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.7742, "trend_reference": 7.523771, "distance_from_trend": 0.033285, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.074211, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.098949, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.843074, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.058735, "excess_performance": -0.024148, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.033285, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014133, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.098949, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027446, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.058431, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048799, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.058735, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.342189, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.342189, "dry_up": 2.134755, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007031, "annualized_volatility": 0.043893, "from_high_reference": -0.011947, "from_low_reference": 0.088092 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.523771, "fair_value_reference": 7.074211, "structural_low": 7.2966, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.001093, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.004848, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.041967, "worst_return": -0.044524, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.000543, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.021912, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.092701, "worst_return": -0.065978, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.014737, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.034028, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.107888, "worst_return": -0.044994, 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"modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.653924, "energy": 88.564617, "activity_lines": [ 7.807707, 7.743196, 7.625165, 7.558593 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.8064, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 163.0, "trend": 7.504732, "fair_value": 7.054891, "relative_strength": -4.421675, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.270292, "energy": 68.414297, "activity_lines": [ 7.8074, 7.7678, 7.650777, 7.578857 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.73, "volume": 114, "typical_volume": 167.1, "trend": 7.514607, "fair_value": 7.064479, "relative_strength": -5.289933, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.275276, "energy": 66.366056, "activity_lines": [ 7.780267, 7.772044, 7.667218, 7.59339 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.7742, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 110.2, "trend": 7.523771, "fair_value": 7.074211, "relative_strength": -5.843074, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.534784, "energy": 59.401277, "activity_lines": [ 7.775787, 7.779244, 7.686076, 7.610138 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }