{ "ticker": { "uuid": "70c2612c-a771-4b4c-a76c-5d0ca40aba7c", "symbol": "KBWY", "name": "INVESCO KBW PREMIUM YIELD EQUITY REIT ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.681, "architecture_energy": 49.091, "architecture_maturity": 82.276, "architecture_confidence": 60.899, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.34, "rotation_up": 47.1, "upward_expansion": 73.89, "deceleration": 65.22, "rotation_down": 26.24, "downward_expansion": 14.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.484333, 18.485361, 17.986261, 17.440737 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 18.2, "trend_reference": 16.81174, "distance_from_trend": 0.082577, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.470501, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.176432, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.079845, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.140335, "excess_performance": -0.047118, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.082577, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075397, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.176432, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050284, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.000798, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058458, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.140335, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.990812, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 907970, "relative_activity": 1.366492, "balance": 0.990812, "dry_up": 1.144754, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035202, "annualized_volatility": 0.179205, "from_high_reference": -0.053445, "from_low_reference": 0.306364 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.81174, "fair_value_reference": 15.470501, "structural_low": 14.704296, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.001325, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012025, "regime_survival": 0.708333, "best_return": 0.072266, "worst_return": -0.108383, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.018772, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.005288, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.148567, "worst_return": -0.113832, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.019057, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.007425, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.136985, "worst_return": -0.111395, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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17.374627, 16.910156 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.018945, "volume": 755929, "typical_volume": 637310.7, "trend": 16.476493, "fair_value": 15.403394, "relative_strength": 8.855335, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.449149, "energy": 84.989729, "activity_lines": [ 18.658999, 18.323841, 17.589876, 17.083245 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.7567, "volume": 544609, "typical_volume": 638813.4, "trend": 16.607862, "fair_value": 15.427071, "relative_strength": 8.972362, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.172208, "energy": 70.487393, "activity_lines": [ 18.744209, 18.466605, 17.765838, 17.230355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.39, "volume": 834034, "typical_volume": 653594.9, "trend": 16.721231, "fair_value": 15.449595, "relative_strength": 6.156969, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.792478, "energy": 58.964825, "activity_lines": [ 18.639215, 18.50346, 17.892697, 17.345332 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.2, "volume": 907970, "typical_volume": 664453.35, "trend": 16.81174, "fair_value": 15.470501, "relative_strength": -0.079845, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.680695, "energy": 49.090772, "activity_lines": [ 18.484333, 18.485361, 17.986261, 17.440737 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }