{ "ticker": { "uuid": "70c7d8b6-5b27-4156-9e07-b3c87021289f", "symbol": "XJUN", "name": "FT VEST U.S. EQUITY ENHANCE & MODERATE BUFFER ETF - JUNE", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 78.876, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.789, "architecture_energy": 67.827, "architecture_maturity": 40.745, "architecture_confidence": 54.992, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.29, "rotation_up": 73.8, "upward_expansion": 85.67, "deceleration": 59.48, "rotation_down": 16.87, "downward_expansion": 10.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.689153, 44.522687, 44.348405, 44.09566 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 45.146, "trend_reference": 43.78236, "distance_from_trend": 0.031146, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.146771, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.15325, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.854989, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.044082, "excess_performance": -0.081543, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031146, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013431, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.15325, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001438, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.06855, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003594, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.044082, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.334253, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56701, "relative_activity": 0.411855, "balance": 0.334253, "dry_up": 0.245707, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.00717, "annualized_volatility": 0.041897, "from_high_reference": -8.9e-05, "from_low_reference": 0.086808 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.78236, "fair_value_reference": 39.146771, "structural_low": 42.46, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.007401, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.010722, "regime_survival": 0.897436, "best_return": 0.032947, "worst_return": -0.016204, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.032062, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.02456, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.050301, "worst_return": -0.024614, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.049526, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.05022, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.075941, "worst_return": 0.030151, "sufficient": true 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43.777018 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 44.57, "volume": 34154, "typical_volume": 137038.65, "trend": 43.56665, "fair_value": 38.866071, "relative_strength": -6.603355, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.143944, "energy": 64.459556, "activity_lines": [ 44.335, 44.294273, 44.072963, 43.845718 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 44.41, "volume": 32687, "typical_volume": 136801.65, "trend": 43.618317, "fair_value": 38.934596, "relative_strength": -5.284682, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.701791, "energy": 57.215349, "activity_lines": [ 44.369667, 44.321909, 44.131789, 43.900128 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.2991, "volume": 18460, "typical_volume": 135791.2, "trend": 43.661117, "fair_value": 39.001578, "relative_strength": -4.793154, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.726452, "energy": 55.015145, "activity_lines": [ 44.363033, 44.324473, 44.174744, 43.944049 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.58, "volume": 27460, "typical_volume": 136435.7, "trend": 43.71492, "fair_value": 39.072283, "relative_strength": -5.014972, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.688862, "energy": 57.733315, "activity_lines": [ 44.454427, 44.375216, 44.238462, 44.003332 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.146, "volume": 56701, "typical_volume": 137672.25, "trend": 43.78236, "fair_value": 39.146771, "relative_strength": -6.854989, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.788678, "energy": 67.827474, "activity_lines": [ 44.689153, 44.522687, 44.348405, 44.09566 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }