{ "ticker": { "uuid": "70d38074-c93e-4d21-a899-220ca3961c1c", "symbol": "TCH-F173", "name": "Meitav Mutual Funds Ltd. - Etf (Stock Market)", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.424, "architecture_energy": 63.893, "architecture_maturity": 91.0, "architecture_confidence": 60.439, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.19, "rotation_up": 27.96, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 50.27, "downward_expansion": 70.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.420667, 53.563636, 1409.757143, 2346.623656 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 54.98, "trend_reference": 3373.053333, "distance_from_trend": -0.9837, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3719.870149, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.98522, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.685122, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.988713, "excess_performance": -1.017613, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.9837, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.299809, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.98522, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.299924, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.986851, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.897588, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.988713, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.608383, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29565, "relative_activity": 0.950393, "balance": 1.608383, "dry_up": 1.346968, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.706271, "annualized_volatility": 6.375772, "from_high_reference": -0.989741, "from_low_reference": 0.075088 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3373.053333, "fair_value_reference": 3719.870149, "structural_low": 51.14, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.005497, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.004633, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.005497, "worst_return": -0.005497, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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}, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 52.47, "volume": 304, "typical_volume": 27514.75, "trend": 3818.233, "fair_value": 3803.80145, "relative_strength": -98.824858, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.659452, "energy": 85.175784, "activity_lines": [ 52.078, 622.882364, 2280.863952, 3046.555548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 54.03, "volume": 22111, "typical_volume": 28343.05, "trend": 3671.667333, "fair_value": 3775.394091, "relative_strength": -98.794173, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.294693, "energy": 68.472729, "activity_lines": [ 52.72, 337.906182, 1967.238286, 2803.703742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 55.6, "volume": 115627, "typical_volume": 32656.3, "trend": 3523.654, "fair_value": 3747.425714, "relative_strength": -98.696812, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.874961, "energy": 67.79595, "activity_lines": [ 53.800667, 148.469455, 1677.090571, 2570.409075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.98, "volume": 29565, "typical_volume": 31108.2, "trend": 3373.053333, "fair_value": 3719.870149, "relative_strength": -98.685122, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.423758, "energy": 63.892857, "activity_lines": [ 54.420667, 53.563636, 1409.757143, 2346.623656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }