{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "70dcb9b0-f9a3-4e88-881b-09beaf25db26",
    "symbol": "NOKI",
    "name": "Nokia Oyj",
    "exchange": "VIE",
    "country": "AT",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^ATX",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch",
    "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch",
    "confidence": 73.455,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -32.01,
    "architecture_energy": 47.836,
    "architecture_maturity": 42.471,
    "architecture_confidence": 71.207,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 33.03,
        "rotation_up": 14.01,
        "upward_expansion": 20.43,
        "deceleration": 62.09,
        "rotation_down": 72.4,
        "downward_expansion": 47.77
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        8.360264,
        9.460803,
        10.326899,
        9.811756
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 8.15,
    "trend_reference": 8.852781,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.079385,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 4.800789,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.697638,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -3.554518,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.388507,
    "excess_performance": 0.21426,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.079385,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.233335,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.697638,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.920832,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.035545,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.770695,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.388507,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.376009,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 45740,
      "relative_activity": 4.629648,
      "balance": 0.376009,
      "dry_up": 2.205029,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.156054,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.560076,
      "from_high_reference": -0.423621,
      "from_low_reference": 1.354176
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 8.852781,
      "fair_value_reference": 4.800789,
      "structural_low": 5.819838,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.015352,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.033436,
        "regime_survival": 0.4,
        "best_return": 0.071637,
        "worst_return": -0.24621,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.198857,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.094017,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.299984,
        "worst_return": 0.152228,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.189644,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.122014,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 1.193628,
        "worst_return": 0.019367,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.124872,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.040813,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.32963,
        "worst_return": -0.079886,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2023-04-21",
        "end": "2024-01-26",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.062691,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-02-02",
        "end": "2024-02-09",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.019086,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-02-16",
        "end": "2024-03-01",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.009306,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-03-08",
        "end": "2024-05-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.032733,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-10",
        "end": "2024-11-29",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.16915,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-12-06",
        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.053738,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.062125,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-04-25",
        "end": "2025-07-18",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.051423,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-07-25",
        "end": "2025-10-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.13021,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-10-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.316635,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2025-12-12",
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        "return": -0.111411,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "return": 0.009879,
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      {
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        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "return": 1.014935,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "return": -0.24621,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 533.8,
        "trend": 6.235017,
        "fair_value": 4.124246,
        "relative_strength": 73.896611,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 900.5,
        "trend": 6.688136,
        "fair_value": 4.226759,
        "relative_strength": 87.03028,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "trend": 6.955862,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "trend": 7.418938,
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        "relative_strength": 86.572753,
        "stage": 2,
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        "energy": 71.933782,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "trend": 8.09569,
        "fair_value": 4.574992,
        "relative_strength": 46.788844,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 54.832871,
        "energy": 57.175066,
        "activity_lines": [
          12.123822,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 11.130466,
        "volume": 2188,
        "typical_volume": 2851.1,
        "trend": 8.29399,
        "fair_value": 4.623813,
        "relative_strength": 39.040165,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 44.253126,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 55326,
        "typical_volume": 5538.15,
        "trend": 8.480686,
        "fair_value": 4.672509,
        "relative_strength": 35.169281,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 40.784125,
        "energy": 29.86314,
        "activity_lines": [
          11.28736,
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          11.000457,
          9.907148
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 8.782968,
        "volume": 229,
        "typical_volume": 5549.6,
        "trend": 8.593081,
        "fair_value": 4.708254,
        "relative_strength": 11.035945,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 7.882207,
        "energy": 23.692851,
        "activity_lines": [
          10.339552,
          11.238962,
          10.894279,
          9.92665
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 8.164001,
        "volume": 487,
        "typical_volume": 5573.95,
        "trend": 8.682533,
        "fair_value": 4.739429,
        "relative_strength": 1.014294,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -16.75078,
        "energy": 31.912292,
        "activity_lines": [
          9.465557,
          10.582418,
          10.718246,
          9.898968
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 7.946,
        "volume": 40685,
        "typical_volume": 7608.2,
        "trend": 8.765247,
        "fair_value": 4.769457,
        "relative_strength": -2.409839,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -20.046096,
        "energy": 40.330515,
        "activity_lines": [
          8.765962,
          9.954983,
          10.514242,
          9.85145
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 8.15,
        "volume": 45740,
        "typical_volume": 9879.8,
        "trend": 8.852781,
        "fair_value": 4.800789,
        "relative_strength": -3.554518,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -32.010262,
        "energy": 47.836038,
        "activity_lines": [
          8.360264,
          9.460803,
          10.326899,
          9.811756
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}