{ "ticker": { "uuid": "70e0a30f-6195-4af3-ab5c-0cbed0b4cd5d", "symbol": "VCL", "name": "Vaxtex Cotfab Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.371, "architecture_energy": 73.455, "architecture_maturity": 35.763, "architecture_confidence": 91.406, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.92, "rotation_up": 15.64, "upward_expansion": 16.45, "deceleration": 39.24, "rotation_down": 67.39, "downward_expansion": 89.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.174667, 1.218545, 1.306524, 1.399161 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.34, "trend_reference": 1.571, "distance_from_trend": -0.14704, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.245321, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.076028, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.48653, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.291005, "excess_performance": -0.247296, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.14704, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105523, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.076028, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050404, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094865, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190279, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.291005, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.623668, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 714152, "relative_activity": 0.477647, "balance": 0.623668, "dry_up": 1.053879, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097589, "annualized_volatility": 0.818531, "from_high_reference": -0.496241, "from_low_reference": 0.54023 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.571, "fair_value_reference": 1.245321, "structural_low": 0.97, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.030575, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": -0.055376, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.425, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.072234, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.12462, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.16, "worst_return": -0.241379, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.145758, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.182102, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.285714, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"down", "direction": -60.326255, "energy": 48.791275, "activity_lines": [ 1.322, 1.349455, 1.414857, 1.531978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.17, "volume": 1081189, "typical_volume": 1644641.85, "trend": 1.680333, "fair_value": 1.268077, "relative_strength": -20.332623, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.258287, "energy": 61.683458, "activity_lines": [ 1.271333, 1.311455, 1.38419, 1.497871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.99, "volume": 3371370, "typical_volume": 1717563.85, "trend": 1.644333, "fair_value": 1.259359, "relative_strength": -30.87902, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.35209, "energy": 89.49109, "activity_lines": [ 1.172, 1.246545, 1.340952, 1.453333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.07, "volume": 1136109, "typical_volume": 1612806.2, "trend": 1.605333, "fair_value": 1.251795, "relative_strength": -27.018156, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.976956, "energy": 89.528017, "activity_lines": [ 1.12, 1.205273, 1.30981, 1.41628 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.34, "volume": 714152, "typical_volume": 1495147.4, "trend": 1.571, "fair_value": 1.245321, "relative_strength": -9.48653, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.371403, "energy": 73.454658, "activity_lines": [ 1.174667, 1.218545, 1.306524, 1.399161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }