{ "ticker": { "uuid": "70e1d093-d813-45a2-8a94-f8fc6d4ce2b0", "symbol": "SKF-A", "name": "AB SKF (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 77.832, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.344, "architecture_energy": 47.813, "architecture_maturity": 16.273, "architecture_confidence": 80.728, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.45, "rotation_up": 60.31, "upward_expansion": 82.15, "deceleration": 53.13, "rotation_down": 19.73, "downward_expansion": 6.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 258.966667, 256.290909, 249.289447, 244.734059 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 264.0, "trend_reference": 241.725261, "distance_from_trend": 0.092149, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 210.37473, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.254904, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.630577, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.082597, "excess_performance": 0.021103, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.092149, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014297, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.254904, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085489, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.026306, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044668, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.082597, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.952792, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30493, "relative_activity": 1.087818, "balance": 2.952792, "dry_up": 0.934552, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048805, "annualized_volatility": 0.297947, "from_high_reference": -0.029412, "from_low_reference": 0.309678 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 241.725261, "fair_value_reference": 210.37473, "structural_low": 201.576195, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.004065, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.02538, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.107537, "worst_return": -0.184615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.030411, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.047745, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.149398, "worst_return": -0.135511, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.033064, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.028652, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.083493, "worst_return": -0.074718, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"typical_volume": 27869.95, "trend": 240.565797, "fair_value": 209.219309, "relative_strength": -2.24928, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.658029, "energy": 65.382992, "activity_lines": [ 256.066667, 252.209091, 245.044905, 242.098732 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 258.5, "volume": 17377, "typical_volume": 27785.25, "trend": 241.086639, "fair_value": 209.758273, "relative_strength": -2.95358, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.640324, "energy": 50.564144, "activity_lines": [ 257.0, 253.918182, 246.998663, 243.255777 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 264.0, "volume": 30493, "typical_volume": 28031.35, "trend": 241.725261, "fair_value": 210.37473, "relative_strength": -2.630577, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.34413, "energy": 47.812913, "activity_lines": [ 258.966667, 256.290909, 249.289447, 244.734059 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }