{ "ticker": { "uuid": "70e56ee7-b834-4922-8e84-7c2089872d5a", "symbol": "TSLA", "name": "Tesla, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.887, "architecture_energy": 86.026, "architecture_maturity": 20.593, "architecture_confidence": 81.659, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.75, "rotation_up": 10.74, "upward_expansion": 22.51, "deceleration": 34.17, "rotation_down": 78.94, "downward_expansion": 93.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 5768.337923, 6187.839959, 6551.381548, 6662.842473 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5603.0, "trend_reference": 6853.110986, "distance_from_trend": -0.182415, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5650.977545, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.00849, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.907359, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.215587, "excess_performance": -0.16092, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.182415, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069452, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.00849, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.350378, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.239074, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.173835, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.215587, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.640476, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31196, "relative_activity": 1.778203, "balance": 0.640476, "dry_up": 1.720818, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08549, "annualized_volatility": 0.476111, "from_high_reference": -0.372955, "from_low_reference": 0.079389 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6853.110986, "fair_value_reference": 5650.977545, "structural_low": 5190.899902, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.027817, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": 0.06353, "regime_survival": 0.611111, "best_return": 0.605628, "worst_return": -0.23331, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.118519, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.111087, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.407269, "worst_return": -0.411339, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.264114, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.293784, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.435086, "worst_return": -0.201374, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-08-07", "close": 5603.0, "volume": 31196, "typical_volume": 17543.55, "trend": 6853.110986, "fair_value": 5650.977545, "relative_strength": -23.907359, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.887395, "energy": 86.025687, "activity_lines": [ 5768.337923, 6187.839959, 6551.381548, 6662.842473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }