{ "ticker": { "uuid": "70eaf138-77e3-4947-a1ce-79e2d7dcd11d", "symbol": "CGIC", "name": "CAPITAL GROUP INTERNATIONAL CORE EQUITY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 77.953, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.45, "architecture_energy": 32.2, "architecture_maturity": 48.281, "architecture_confidence": 55.865, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.98, "rotation_up": 39.85, "upward_expansion": 71.83, "deceleration": 68.33, "rotation_down": 24.48, "downward_expansion": 3.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.097227, 36.00971, 35.815464, 35.445629 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 36.9, "trend_reference": 35.074338, "distance_from_trend": 0.052051, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.273873, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.26051, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.379948, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.053469, "excess_performance": -0.072156, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052051, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039246, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.26051, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004359, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.013799, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027638, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.053469, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.342577, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2041535, "relative_activity": 0.777204, "balance": 3.342577, "dry_up": 1.147057, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030421, "annualized_volatility": 0.179976, "from_high_reference": -0.003511, "from_low_reference": 0.263564 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.074338, "fair_value_reference": 29.273873, "structural_low": 31.969144, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.015434, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004057, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.04378, "worst_return": -0.107103, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.018192, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.017248, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.02969, "worst_return": 0.006695, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.086759, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.009231, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.086759, "worst_return": 0.086759, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"gate": "up", "direction": 33.420104, "energy": 16.610778, "activity_lines": [ 35.627126, 35.805599, 35.561681, 35.24951 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.97, "volume": 5586519, "typical_volume": 2642006.05, "trend": 34.962942, "fair_value": 29.204545, "relative_strength": -0.447773, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.176501, "energy": 17.318643, "activity_lines": [ 35.714507, 35.825289, 35.65129, 35.320657 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.9, "volume": 2041535, "typical_volume": 2626769.05, "trend": 35.074338, "fair_value": 29.273873, "relative_strength": -1.379948, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.450126, "energy": 32.199722, "activity_lines": [ 36.097227, 36.00971, 35.815464, 35.445629 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }