{ "ticker": { "uuid": "70ec042a-c386-4225-9a08-e58f317d96cb", "symbol": "FETH", "name": "Fidelity Advantage Ether ETF - L", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.144, "architecture_energy": 21.335, "architecture_maturity": 81.023, "architecture_confidence": 61.411, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.81, "rotation_up": 30.25, "upward_expansion": 19.08, "deceleration": 46.84, "rotation_down": 20.09, "downward_expansion": 53.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.938001, 33.866001, 35.045905, 36.144968 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 35.540001, "trend_reference": 38.433667, "distance_from_trend": -0.07529, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 50.269124, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.293005, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.825665, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.04411, "excess_performance": -0.164531, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.07529, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170723, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.293005, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134607, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.398257, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059292, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.04411, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.695868, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18158, "relative_activity": 1.036436, "balance": 0.695868, "dry_up": 1.071483, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085646, "annualized_volatility": 0.468323, "from_high_reference": -0.602816, "from_low_reference": 0.240489 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.433667, "fair_value_reference": 50.269124, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.21034, "energy": 91.448659, "activity_lines": [ 31.031333, 33.931818, 36.543714, 38.656903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 33.060001, "volume": 1875, "typical_volume": 21584.1, "trend": 41.950667, "fair_value": 50.246944, "relative_strength": -46.67049, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.663309, "energy": 78.902903, "activity_lines": [ 31.444, 33.320364, 36.137572, 38.035011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 33.790001, "volume": 20186, "typical_volume": 21330.9, "trend": 41.193, "fair_value": 50.23547, "relative_strength": -44.932365, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.174964, "energy": 55.177758, "activity_lines": [ 32.37, 33.011637, 35.819953, 37.508516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 34.360001, "volume": 10655, "typical_volume": 19997.9, "trend": 40.502333, "fair_value": 50.237777, "relative_strength": -43.050504, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.717531, "energy": 42.69257, "activity_lines": [ 33.184001, 32.952728, 35.566572, 37.067678 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.900002, "volume": 24176, "typical_volume": 18983.15, "trend": 39.889, "fair_value": 50.247265, "relative_strength": -41.382665, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.10421, "energy": 28.037085, "activity_lines": [ 33.949335, 33.135819, 35.367572, 36.706237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.790001, "volume": 22099, "typical_volume": 18807.55, "trend": 39.140667, "fair_value": 50.25579, "relative_strength": -40.367249, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.927388, "energy": 22.898224, "activity_lines": [ 34.484668, 33.404364, 35.162334, 36.377269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.540001, "volume": 18158, "typical_volume": 17519.65, "trend": 38.433667, "fair_value": 50.269124, "relative_strength": -39.825665, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.144036, "energy": 21.335462, "activity_lines": [ 34.938001, 33.866001, 35.045905, 36.144968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }