{ "ticker": { "uuid": "70f3724f-a98c-4717-b183-87ec4d0d2681", "symbol": "JAAA", "name": "JANUS DETROIT STREET TRUST HENDERSON AAA CLO ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.37, "architecture_energy": 93.996, "architecture_maturity": 36.665, "architecture_confidence": 74.011, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.41, "rotation_up": 76.95, "upward_expansion": 97.34, "deceleration": 41.95, "rotation_down": 16.56, "downward_expansion": 21.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.485722, 50.434223, 50.36765, 50.272934 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 50.56, "trend_reference": 50.143302, "distance_from_trend": 0.00831, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.114019, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.073141, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.449631, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.013838, "excess_performance": -0.111787, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00831, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006697, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.073141, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008527, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094496, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000463, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.013838, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 14.371241, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27489713, "relative_activity": 1.11186, "balance": 14.371241, "dry_up": 1.029379, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.001465, "annualized_volatility": 0.011166, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.041079 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.143302, "fair_value_reference": 47.114019, "structural_low": 49.72539, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 46, "median_return": 0.005028, "positive_rate": 0.891304, "directional_follow_through": 0.891304, "median_excess_return": -0.009857, "regime_survival": 0.956522, "best_return": 0.011093, "worst_return": -0.003745, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.014948, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.040257, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.028623, "worst_return": 0.009239, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.032657, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.092769, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.047345, "worst_return": 0.020502, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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64.325239, "energy": 61.426498, "activity_lines": [ 50.35539, 50.33792, 50.244316, 50.145066 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 50.351221, "volume": 22652164, "typical_volume": 27133864.45, "trend": 50.024537, "fair_value": 46.908116, "relative_strength": -8.654132, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.089868, "energy": 56.743775, "activity_lines": [ 50.350299, 50.34694, 50.264676, 50.168246 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 50.391064, "volume": 23352619, "typical_volume": 26189680.95, "trend": 50.05588, "fair_value": 46.960046, "relative_strength": -6.898238, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.635327, "energy": 55.057035, "activity_lines": [ 50.35975, 50.358894, 50.287007, 50.191893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.450828, "volume": 20194004, "typical_volume": 24995460.35, "trend": 50.085114, "fair_value": 47.011546, "relative_strength": -6.023112, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.287303, "energy": 64.292975, "activity_lines": [ 50.389718, 50.378302, 50.312143, 50.217374 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.5, "volume": 30765391, "typical_volume": 24721674.75, "trend": 50.113698, "fair_value": 47.062645, "relative_strength": -6.672, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.839248, "energy": 85.457276, "activity_lines": [ 50.435344, 50.402692, 50.338742, 50.244141 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.56, "volume": 27489713, "typical_volume": 24724068.8, "trend": 50.143302, "fair_value": 47.114019, "relative_strength": -9.449631, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.369526, "energy": 93.995555, "activity_lines": [ 50.485722, 50.434223, 50.36765, 50.272934 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }