{ "ticker": { "uuid": "70f45fa1-a2d5-4569-ad68-283c3a0d5d42", "symbol": "FRA", "name": "Fraport AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.23, "architecture_energy": 64.473, "architecture_maturity": 10.184, "architecture_confidence": 84.612, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.0, "rotation_up": 12.51, "upward_expansion": 16.43, "deceleration": 34.68, "rotation_down": 71.5, "downward_expansion": 89.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 67.450002, 69.189092, 69.793223, 71.057575 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 67.300003, "trend_reference": 72.938062, "distance_from_trend": -0.077299, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 59.154825, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.137693, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.92824, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.176815, "excess_performance": -0.351062, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.077299, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00307, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.137693, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057947, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.249282, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067312, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.176815, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 276, "relative_activity": 2.896118, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 1.631689, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057773, "annualized_volatility": 0.305632, "from_high_reference": -0.21378, "from_low_reference": 0.067407 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 72.938062, "fair_value_reference": 59.154825, "structural_low": 63.049999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.010357, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00641, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.190463, "worst_return": -0.132667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.012247, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.047047, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.041898, "worst_return": -0.150702, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.029139, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.019311, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.250338, "worst_return": -0.246899, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"trend": 73.181214, "fair_value": 58.499534, "relative_strength": -16.891438, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.301066, "energy": 18.723157, "activity_lines": [ 73.326665, 71.549868, 71.749341, 72.813317 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 69.75, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 99.05, "trend": 73.227833, "fair_value": 58.638586, "relative_strength": -22.101896, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.401185, "energy": 18.447912, "activity_lines": [ 72.549999, 71.454531, 71.43897, 72.591949 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 67.650002, "volume": 70, "typical_volume": 88.15, "trend": 73.247161, "fair_value": 58.769357, "relative_strength": -22.614989, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.263327, "energy": 23.410638, "activity_lines": [ 70.953333, 70.960909, 70.985299, 72.232089 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 66.0, "volume": 276, "typical_volume": 88.7, "trend": 73.176993, "fair_value": 58.891826, "relative_strength": -25.146558, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.96873, "energy": 46.040073, "activity_lines": [ 69.016667, 70.182727, 70.445409, 71.76453 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 68.050003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 88.7, "trend": 73.130807, "fair_value": 59.036659, "relative_strength": -22.425728, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.61101, "energy": 56.535392, "activity_lines": [ 68.160001, 69.756364, 70.144574, 71.433756 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 67.300003, "volume": 276, "typical_volume": 95.3, "trend": 72.938062, "fair_value": 59.154825, "relative_strength": -24.92824, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.230413, "energy": 64.472615, "activity_lines": [ 67.450002, 69.189092, 69.793223, 71.057575 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }