{ "ticker": { "uuid": "70f57661-e8d5-43ad-9c34-4922a7cfbfe8", "symbol": "GDX", "name": "VANECK ETF TR VANECK GOLD MINERS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 70.845, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.286, "architecture_energy": 23.742, "architecture_maturity": 41.596, "architecture_confidence": 60.338, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.58, "rotation_up": 27.08, "upward_expansion": 17.1, "deceleration": 62.65, "rotation_down": 38.38, "downward_expansion": 67.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 79.314, 78.302545, 81.549095, 85.026602 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 89.89, "trend_reference": 89.918, "distance_from_trend": -0.000311, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 52.423959, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.714674, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.396706, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.07701, "excess_performance": -0.202635, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000311, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015642, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.714674, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.247891, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.043967, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151435, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.07701, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.925183, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 144878882, "relative_activity": 1.329038, "balance": 0.925183, "dry_up": 0.936246, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095523, "annualized_volatility": 0.584057, "from_high_reference": -0.232857, "from_low_reference": 0.606693 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 89.918, "fair_value_reference": 52.423959, "structural_low": 69.74, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.016549, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.012513, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.199198, "worst_return": -0.077884, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.032063, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.044594, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.461801, "worst_return": -0.112153, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.236807, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.254026, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.297855, "worst_return": -0.045991, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.404578, "energy": 69.465612, "activity_lines": [ 75.368, 78.106182, 83.232095, 87.098323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 75.23, "volume": 78582045, "typical_volume": 112440412.8, "trend": 90.394667, "fair_value": 51.738146, "relative_strength": -15.748145, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.244968, "energy": 59.716723, "activity_lines": [ 74.792, 77.138545, 82.128143, 86.085419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 74.1, "volume": 89490281, "typical_volume": 110820577.65, "trend": 90.007, "fair_value": 52.030134, "relative_strength": -18.102359, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.16996, "energy": 55.408422, "activity_lines": [ 74.324667, 76.185818, 81.041095, 85.034151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 89.89, "volume": 144878882, "typical_volume": 109010357.65, "trend": 89.918, "fair_value": 52.423959, "relative_strength": -4.396706, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.286272, "energy": 23.741577, "activity_lines": [ 79.314, 78.302545, 81.549095, 85.026602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }