{ "ticker": { "uuid": "70f9debe-9247-47ba-bf2b-ea1cbe00a690", "symbol": "2877", "name": "China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Limited", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-28", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 49.506, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -19.147, "architecture_energy": 11.701, "architecture_maturity": 56.83, "architecture_confidence": 51.959, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.94, "rotation_up": 29.62, "upward_expansion": 20.0, "deceleration": 43.37, "rotation_down": 18.09, "downward_expansion": 51.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.217333, 8.132455, 8.158312, 8.347112 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.52, "trend_reference": 8.575828, "distance_from_trend": -0.00651, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.668462, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.111044, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.315402, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.045757, "excess_performance": -0.006489, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00651, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01884, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.111044, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002725, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.013154, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010795, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.045757, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.220046, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10595000, "relative_activity": 3.302478, "balance": 1.220046, "dry_up": 1.323183, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051598, "annualized_volatility": 0.251117, "from_high_reference": -0.143278, "from_low_reference": 0.159184 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.575828, "fair_value_reference": 7.668462, "structural_low": 7.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.017857, "positive_rate": 0.684211, "directional_follow_through": 0.315789, "median_excess_return": 0.037462, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.312245, "worst_return": -0.071111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.060357, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.031358, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.558522, "worst_return": -0.112081, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.179737, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.027752, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.328778, "worst_return": -0.118999, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.465542, "energy": 24.428329, "activity_lines": [ 8.096667, 7.978545, 8.278873, 8.469563 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.055, "volume": 2171600, "typical_volume": 3624423.3, "trend": 8.665413, "fair_value": 7.628193, "relative_strength": -4.37971, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.674881, "energy": 26.969595, "activity_lines": [ 8.123, 7.986364, 8.233225, 8.428446 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 8.05, "volume": 1998529, "typical_volume": 3350697.25, "trend": 8.633912, "fair_value": 7.641679, "relative_strength": -2.4213, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.616671, "energy": 22.839117, "activity_lines": [ 8.113333, 7.999182, 8.188908, 8.388742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 8.06, "volume": 2215000, "typical_volume": 2961397.25, "trend": 8.591346, "fair_value": 7.654703, "relative_strength": -5.665383, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.165124, "energy": 24.413284, "activity_lines": [ 8.081667, 8.021455, 8.148823, 8.351715 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 8.52, "volume": 10595000, "typical_volume": 3208197.25, "trend": 8.575828, "fair_value": 7.668462, "relative_strength": 1.315402, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.147437, "energy": 11.701386, "activity_lines": [ 8.217333, 8.132455, 8.158312, 8.347112 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }