{ "ticker": { "uuid": "70fb3142-9ed9-4d6d-b981-9500332f39ce", "symbol": "CIVB", "name": "Civista Bancshares Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.916, "architecture_energy": 49.125, "architecture_maturity": 53.427, "architecture_confidence": 82.423, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.13, "rotation_up": 54.48, "upward_expansion": 80.69, "deceleration": 63.35, "rotation_down": 23.24, "downward_expansion": 7.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.437139, 28.205313, 27.177071, 26.220305 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 28.33, "trend_reference": 25.112417, "distance_from_trend": 0.128127, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.240573, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.472409, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.005192, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.157779, "excess_performance": -0.029674, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.128127, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078596, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.472409, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.103915, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.060052, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11542, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.157779, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.686361, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 691925, "relative_activity": 1.326565, "balance": 1.686361, "dry_up": 1.206159, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057999, "annualized_volatility": 0.204801, "from_high_reference": -0.048872, "from_low_reference": 0.500593 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.112417, "fair_value_reference": 19.240573, "structural_low": 21.445038, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.00927, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": -0.029718, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.290925, "worst_return": -0.089594, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.022257, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.035647, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.377099, "worst_return": -0.079337, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.037476, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.062455, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.31596, "worst_return": -0.359163, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.983862, "energy": 55.395687, "activity_lines": [ 28.047845, 27.517184, 26.298105, 25.471867 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.404243, "volume": 630635, "typical_volume": 509163.0, "trend": 24.653688, "fair_value": 19.086688, "relative_strength": 13.142653, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.265524, "energy": 51.204722, "activity_lines": [ 28.206626, 27.793601, 26.608089, 25.726115 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.881291, "volume": 574530, "typical_volume": 520180.05, "trend": 24.897661, "fair_value": 19.165186, "relative_strength": 13.936636, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.241236, "energy": 50.961869, "activity_lines": [ 28.420807, 28.080677, 26.935001, 25.998864 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.33, "volume": 691925, "typical_volume": 521591.45, "trend": 25.112417, "fair_value": 19.240573, "relative_strength": 6.005192, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.915666, "energy": 49.125408, "activity_lines": [ 28.437139, 28.205313, 27.177071, 26.220305 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }