{ "ticker": { "uuid": "70fc4b7b-7568-47e0-ad37-d0e672bcdebc", "symbol": "600717", "name": "Tianjin Port Holdings Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.642, "architecture_energy": 22.465, "architecture_maturity": 90.383, "architecture_confidence": 76.32, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.28, "rotation_up": 34.21, "upward_expansion": 21.07, "deceleration": 44.14, "rotation_down": 25.52, "downward_expansion": 57.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.270667, 4.215112, 4.265776, 4.351059 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.23, "trend_reference": 4.463098, "distance_from_trend": -0.052228, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.441149, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.047544, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.161333, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.124224, "excess_performance": -0.08102, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.052228, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030673, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.047544, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07457, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.071613, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034468, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.124224, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.745976, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 104962639, "relative_activity": 1.183299, "balance": 0.745976, "dry_up": 1.412313, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04696, "annualized_volatility": 0.220812, "from_high_reference": -0.26049, "from_low_reference": 0.068182 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.463098, "fair_value_reference": 4.441149, "structural_low": 3.96, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.00526, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.004463, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.139241, "worst_return": -0.042735, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.006329, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.015433, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.074624, "worst_return": -0.049191, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.049366, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.018216, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.159494, "worst_return": -0.078431, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -4.729529, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.514912, "energy": 43.538609, "activity_lines": [ 4.154, 4.173288, 4.272375, 4.369502 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.43, "volume": 126228217, "typical_volume": 88431200.1, "trend": 4.471098, "fair_value": 4.441563, "relative_strength": -0.417982, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.345137, "energy": 18.545733, "activity_lines": [ 4.26, 4.213601, 4.277694, 4.366614 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.23, "volume": 104962639, "typical_volume": 88703362.95, "trend": 4.463098, "fair_value": 4.441149, "relative_strength": -7.161333, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.641613, "energy": 22.464633, "activity_lines": [ 4.270667, 4.215112, 4.265776, 4.351059 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }