{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7107dfba-3aee-4a92-85c2-21743f31c7c4", "symbol": "BR", "name": "Big Rock Brewery Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.871, "architecture_energy": 85.447, "architecture_maturity": 51.316, "architecture_confidence": 92.375, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.67, "rotation_up": 10.84, "upward_expansion": 21.7, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 76.59, "downward_expansion": 97.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.636667, 0.656, 0.675333, 0.697978 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.65, "trend_reference": 0.735667, "distance_from_trend": -0.116448, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.124551, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.421992, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.091427, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.216867, "excess_performance": -0.337289, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.116448, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065622, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.421992, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00583, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.300914, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028068, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.216867, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.2, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6800, "relative_activity": 0.665362, "balance": 0.2, "dry_up": 2.58317, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043787, "annualized_volatility": 0.406027, "from_high_reference": -0.409091, "from_low_reference": 0.083333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.735667, "fair_value_reference": 1.124551, "structural_low": 0.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 48, "median_return": -0.032333, "positive_rate": 0.291667, "directional_follow_through": 0.645833, "median_excess_return": -0.047718, "regime_survival": 0.916667, "best_return": 0.354839, "worst_return": -0.22, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.113192, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.172027, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.181818, "worst_return": -0.339474, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.170746, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.265853, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.016949, "worst_return": -0.473684, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "orange", "start": "2023-07-21", "end": "2023-08-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064327, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.31875, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.224806, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.095238, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.184211, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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1.156795, "relative_strength": -28.890844, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.776657, "energy": 25.283234, "activity_lines": [ 0.695333, 0.691273, 0.708476, 0.731763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.67, "volume": 9700, "typical_volume": 6290.0, "trend": 0.753333, "fair_value": 1.150513, "relative_strength": -30.076388, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.838086, "energy": 38.964538, "activity_lines": [ 0.686, 0.686545, 0.702619, 0.726108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.67, "volume": 48000, "typical_volume": 8440.0, "trend": 0.749, "fair_value": 1.143846, "relative_strength": -29.091012, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.61399, "energy": 43.519427, "activity_lines": [ 0.678, 0.683818, 0.697571, 0.720731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.63, "volume": 44400, "typical_volume": 10260.0, "trend": 0.744333, "fair_value": 1.137308, "relative_strength": -32.589604, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.35472, "energy": 64.415147, "activity_lines": [ 0.660667, 0.674545, 0.689524, 0.713054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.6, "volume": 6400, "typical_volume": 10255.0, "trend": 0.739333, "fair_value": 1.130769, "relative_strength": -34.426703, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.426656, "energy": 89.204907, "activity_lines": [ 0.637333, 0.660182, 0.679571, 0.703742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.65, "volume": 6800, "typical_volume": 10220.0, "trend": 0.735667, "fair_value": 1.124551, "relative_strength": -30.091427, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.87054, "energy": 85.44698, "activity_lines": [ 0.636667, 0.656, 0.675333, 0.697978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }