{ "ticker": { "uuid": "710aa2b3-95b9-4305-8bc5-d9edefad2b73", "symbol": "TYD", "name": "DIREXION DAILY 7-10 YEAR TREASURY BULL 3X ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.254, "architecture_energy": 69.435, "architecture_maturity": 44.378, "architecture_confidence": 86.324, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.44, "rotation_up": 12.73, "upward_expansion": 15.6, "deceleration": 38.26, "rotation_down": 70.66, "downward_expansion": 91.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.838227, 23.130481, 23.411734, 23.758055 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 22.91, "trend_reference": 24.23636, "distance_from_trend": -0.054726, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.340014, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.058752, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.845936, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.092112, "excess_performance": -0.217737, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.054726, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029902, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.058752, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039932, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.178459, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038372, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.092112, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.296999, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 73716, "relative_activity": 0.713351, "balance": 1.296999, "dry_up": 0.826378, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029169, "annualized_volatility": 0.154492, "from_high_reference": -0.139271, "from_low_reference": 0.02322 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.23636, "fair_value_reference": 24.340014, "structural_low": 22.3901, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.014972, "positive_rate": 0.464286, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": -0.00741, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.171152, "worst_return": -0.165282, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.023311, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.13522, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.157423, "worst_return": -0.233038, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.0555, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.119974, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.049261, "worst_return": -0.243304, "sufficient": true }, { 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79315, "typical_volume": 125030.4, "trend": 24.574212, "fair_value": 24.415373, "relative_strength": -16.306652, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.23116, "energy": 33.430039, "activity_lines": [ 23.605857, 23.582557, 23.830793, 24.168984 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.3, "volume": 82248, "typical_volume": 120810.15, "trend": 24.502061, "fair_value": 24.393359, "relative_strength": -14.325014, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.140909, "energy": 37.634424, "activity_lines": [ 23.4843, 23.531486, 23.747042, 24.086777 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.66, "volume": 96652, "typical_volume": 112461.35, "trend": 24.406301, "fair_value": 24.372001, "relative_strength": -15.857841, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.533514, "energy": 63.385782, "activity_lines": [ 23.17088, 23.379644, 23.617897, 23.967934 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.56, "volume": 88968, "typical_volume": 110810.2, "trend": 24.316824, "fair_value": 24.352401, "relative_strength": -16.680846, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.918992, "energy": 74.033484, "activity_lines": [ 22.893553, 23.217015, 23.492856, 23.848818 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.91, "volume": 73716, "typical_volume": 103337.65, "trend": 24.23636, "fair_value": 24.340014, "relative_strength": -17.845936, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.253563, "energy": 69.434989, "activity_lines": [ 22.838227, 23.130481, 23.411734, 23.758055 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }