{ "ticker": { "uuid": "71129f00-e330-4c2d-afcf-23fccf81a54a", "symbol": "CG1", "name": "Amundi ETF DAX UCITS ETF DR", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 71.519, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.42, "architecture_energy": 70.203, "architecture_maturity": 15.528, "architecture_confidence": 83.147, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.42, "rotation_up": 66.55, "upward_expansion": 87.75, "deceleration": 46.38, "rotation_down": 15.78, "downward_expansion": 14.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 452.353335, 448.215458, 442.379527, 437.652045 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 464.899994, "trend_reference": 434.853335, "distance_from_trend": 0.069096, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 372.548929, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.24789, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.680481, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.060084, "excess_performance": 0.006773, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069096, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013211, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.24789, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051008, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.006805, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013507, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.060084, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.042756, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2578, "relative_activity": 0.50936, "balance": 2.042756, "dry_up": 0.673697, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025332, "annualized_volatility": 0.189579, "from_high_reference": -0.005029, "from_low_reference": 0.198196 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 434.853335, "fair_value_reference": 372.548929, "structural_low": 388.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 6.2e-05, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003896, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.0876, "worst_return": -0.111587, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.018375, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.001276, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.124421, "worst_return": -0.070478, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.052454, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.02934, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.1744, "worst_return": -0.011381, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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433.684527, 432.792797 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 443.0, "volume": 5065, "typical_volume": 11062.0, "trend": 433.111667, "fair_value": 368.418801, "relative_strength": -0.04649, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.378564, "energy": 49.902759, "activity_lines": [ 444.220007, 441.510915, 434.934527, 433.460217 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 438.600006, "volume": 2715, "typical_volume": 10919.75, "trend": 433.360001, "fair_value": 369.371365, "relative_strength": -0.94642, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.748121, "energy": 41.56264, "activity_lines": [ 442.990006, 441.48546, 435.789765, 433.814303 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 443.200012, "volume": 1727, "typical_volume": 6282.0, "trend": 433.711668, "fair_value": 370.319442, "relative_strength": -0.237311, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.810382, "energy": 46.376132, "activity_lines": [ 443.083341, 442.148189, 437.131909, 434.449143 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 452.75, "volume": 6619, "typical_volume": 5512.15, "trend": 434.293335, "fair_value": 371.387712, "relative_strength": 0.337254, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.435014, "energy": 43.552715, "activity_lines": [ 446.253339, 444.190915, 439.264766, 435.677422 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 464.899994, "volume": 2578, "typical_volume": 5061.25, "trend": 434.853335, "fair_value": 372.548929, "relative_strength": 0.680481, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.420206, "energy": 70.203432, "activity_lines": [ 452.353335, 448.215458, 442.379527, 437.652045 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }