{ "ticker": { "uuid": "711d3221-c17e-4b0c-a7a6-d2ead1dd18b4", "symbol": "RENUKA", "name": "Shree Renuka Sugars Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.983, "architecture_energy": 60.98, "architecture_maturity": 29.863, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.3, "rotation_up": 23.86, "upward_expansion": 13.64, "deceleration": 40.45, "rotation_down": 53.37, "downward_expansion": 86.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.166, 22.366909, 23.32181, 23.945635 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 22.17, "trend_reference": 24.447667, "distance_from_trend": -0.093165, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 36.745577, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.396662, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.718179, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.103155, "excess_performance": -0.059446, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.093165, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055114, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.396662, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112317, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.147182, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148045, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.103155, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.201285, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33059887, "relative_activity": 1.02742, "balance": 0.201285, "dry_up": 0.577923, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057354, "annualized_volatility": 0.287026, "from_high_reference": -0.338209, "from_low_reference": 0.031163 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.447667, "fair_value_reference": 36.745577, "structural_low": 21.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.003517, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": -0.018673, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.176077, "worst_return": -0.196708, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.061394, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.122808, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.241106, "worst_return": -0.354225, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.144515, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.054987, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.142308, "worst_return": -0.229577, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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45.892447, "activity_lines": [ 22.642, 22.712546, 24.080143, 24.448409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.23, "volume": 15090377, "typical_volume": 33216756.9, "trend": 24.697, "fair_value": 37.057821, "relative_strength": -12.536469, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.609677, "energy": 45.371165, "activity_lines": [ 22.48, 22.586909, 23.831953, 24.281441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.870001, "volume": 10118298, "typical_volume": 31838877.95, "trend": 24.548, "fair_value": 36.899615, "relative_strength": -15.639517, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.731203, "energy": 57.136099, "activity_lines": [ 22.255334, 22.431637, 23.557476, 24.099054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.17, "volume": 33059887, "typical_volume": 32177565.8, "trend": 24.447667, "fair_value": 36.745577, "relative_strength": -14.718179, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.982682, "energy": 60.979678, "activity_lines": [ 22.166, 22.366909, 23.32181, 23.945635 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }