{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7123d4cb-9fda-4d8c-a88a-26ad95a3dadd", "symbol": "300369", "name": "NSFOCUS Technologies Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 90.912, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -11.223, "architecture_energy": 19.302, "architecture_maturity": 78.004, "architecture_confidence": 58.298, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.38, "rotation_up": 41.2, "upward_expansion": 22.84, "deceleration": 41.33, "rotation_down": 17.57, "downward_expansion": 54.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.005333, 6.541818, 6.633286, 7.071075 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.5, "trend_reference": 7.595333, "distance_from_trend": -0.012552, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.709615, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.027189, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.199783, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.074074, "excess_performance": -0.081474, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012552, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064345, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.027189, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030855, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.061998, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.145784, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.074074, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.972192, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 527070941, "relative_activity": 2.823079, "balance": 0.972192, "dry_up": 2.53365, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.121436, "annualized_volatility": 0.706409, "from_high_reference": -0.369748, "from_low_reference": 0.42315 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.595333, "fair_value_reference": 7.709615, "structural_low": 5.27, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.012964, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": 0.006521, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.542471, "worst_return": -0.254279, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.071777, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.045008, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.722008, "worst_return": -0.293056, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.131566, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.167673, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.667954, "worst_return": -0.416953, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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6.676952, 7.188194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.07, "volume": 373163239, "typical_volume": 182115310.05, "trend": 7.594667, "fair_value": 7.777756, "relative_strength": -22.133777, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.712512, "energy": 34.179409, "activity_lines": [ 6.171333, 6.064545, 6.56119, 7.087161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.44, "volume": 492127850, "typical_volume": 176372640.55, "trend": 7.594667, "fair_value": 7.742756, "relative_strength": -2.659012, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.067968, "energy": 22.531027, "activity_lines": [ 6.650667, 6.301636, 6.589143, 7.077183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.5, "volume": 527070941, "typical_volume": 186700717.4, "trend": 7.595333, "fair_value": 7.709615, "relative_strength": -6.199783, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.222558, "energy": 19.301959, "activity_lines": [ 7.005333, 6.541818, 6.633286, 7.071075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }