{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7124c73d-e615-4f92-8976-0582938ab0a9", "symbol": "300755", "name": "VATS Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.106, "architecture_energy": 48.728, "architecture_maturity": 28.937, "architecture_confidence": 79.475, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.48, "rotation_up": 13.61, "upward_expansion": 6.33, "deceleration": 51.78, "rotation_down": 65.14, "downward_expansion": 79.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.256667, 11.681455, 12.795762, 13.232688 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.58, "trend_reference": 14.046333, "distance_from_trend": -0.175586, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.584855, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.301773, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.110704, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.312352, "excess_performance": -0.319751, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.175586, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132443, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.301773, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.172757, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.311107, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000418, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.312352, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.965509, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26506245, "relative_activity": 1.012001, "balance": 0.965509, "dry_up": 1.19719, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.146938, "annualized_volatility": 0.508688, "from_high_reference": -0.514465, "from_low_reference": 0.133072 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.046333, "fair_value_reference": 16.584855, "structural_low": 10.22, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.018689, "positive_rate": 0.40625, "directional_follow_through": 0.59375, "median_excess_return": -0.01241, "regime_survival": 0.84375, "best_return": 0.484956, "worst_return": -0.277851, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.124801, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.054557, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.631441, "worst_return": -0.326012, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.172358, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.1301, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.382622, "worst_return": -0.394118, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.626429, "energy": 75.913778, "activity_lines": [ 12.188, 13.374, 13.707429, 14.124645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.15, "volume": 28360061, "typical_volume": 24632734.65, "trend": 14.742, "fair_value": 16.789704, "relative_strength": -33.549309, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.805841, "energy": 79.522212, "activity_lines": [ 11.614, 12.835818, 13.454286, 13.878495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.3, "volume": 32560730, "typical_volume": 25071805.9, "trend": 14.470333, "fair_value": 16.72237, "relative_strength": -38.013434, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.451439, "energy": 81.711805, "activity_lines": [ 11.004667, 12.215818, 13.137238, 13.591914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.57, "volume": 37999706, "typical_volume": 25948052.8, "trend": 14.247667, "fair_value": 16.661006, "relative_strength": -28.448045, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.485089, "energy": 64.059851, "activity_lines": [ 11.125333, 11.903273, 12.959619, 13.404796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.58, "volume": 26506245, "typical_volume": 26191910.25, "trend": 14.046333, "fair_value": 16.584855, "relative_strength": -31.110704, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.106041, "energy": 48.727532, "activity_lines": [ 11.256667, 11.681455, 12.795762, 13.232688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }