{ "ticker": { "uuid": "712505f3-addf-47bf-af2f-823840f4c41d", "symbol": "002892", "name": "Keli Motor Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.722, "architecture_energy": 43.799, "architecture_maturity": 95.571, "architecture_confidence": 85.866, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.06, "rotation_up": 21.73, "upward_expansion": 5.92, "deceleration": 57.88, "rotation_down": 51.11, "downward_expansion": 76.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.318667, 9.418364, 9.936039, 10.353832 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.59, "trend_reference": 11.04044, "distance_from_trend": -0.131375, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.878064, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.118409, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.997204, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.23731, "excess_performance": -0.24471, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.131375, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091929, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.118409, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14706, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.249972, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086557, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.23731, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.978914, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41654935, "relative_activity": 0.910487, "balance": 0.978914, "dry_up": 0.831131, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099487, "annualized_volatility": 0.393227, "from_high_reference": -0.453984, "from_low_reference": 0.092255 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.04044, "fair_value_reference": 10.878064, "structural_low": 8.78, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.050328, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.02404, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.402913, "worst_return": -0.205009, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.006564, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.000434, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.982379, "worst_return": -0.333032, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.21074, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.260154, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.969366, "worst_return": -0.191876, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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45518804.0, "trend": 11.285612, "fair_value": 10.854706, "relative_strength": -29.64008, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.392058, "energy": 58.500522, "activity_lines": [ 9.111333, 9.532397, 10.103591, 10.570786 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.5, "volume": 37471309, "typical_volume": 45891582.55, "trend": 11.167181, "fair_value": 10.863045, "relative_strength": -22.716274, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.500839, "energy": 50.492369, "activity_lines": [ 9.224, 9.4476, 10.010087, 10.455585 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.59, "volume": 41654935, "typical_volume": 45750172.2, "trend": 11.04044, "fair_value": 10.878064, "relative_strength": -24.997204, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.722373, "energy": 43.79857, "activity_lines": [ 9.318667, 9.418364, 9.936039, 10.353832 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }