{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7125f38b-7081-4014-bd32-710c0670004f", "symbol": "HEXI", "name": "Hexicon AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.525, "architecture_energy": 40.828, "architecture_maturity": 23.516, "architecture_confidence": 89.463, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.57, "rotation_up": 14.75, "upward_expansion": 5.92, "deceleration": 44.99, "rotation_down": 62.93, "downward_expansion": 83.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.1277, 0.131755, 0.151507, 0.153002 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.1235, "trend_reference": 0.153217, "distance_from_trend": -0.193952, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.323667, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.618435, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.557676, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.173913, "excess_performance": -0.235407, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.193952, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026784, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.618435, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126954, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.345577, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.295632, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.173913, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.862091, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1102288, "relative_activity": 0.567257, "balance": 0.862091, "dry_up": 0.541943, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.340081, "annualized_volatility": 1.227797, "from_high_reference": -0.577055, "from_low_reference": 0.235 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.153217, "fair_value_reference": 0.323667, "structural_low": 0.108, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.025714, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.002952, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.025714, "worst_return": 0.025714, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.217143, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.153313, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.217143, "worst_return": 0.217143, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.257143, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.425921, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.257143, "worst_return": -0.257143, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.24, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.488612, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.24, "worst_return": -0.24, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.418605, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.341959, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.333725, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.457547, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.391986, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062857, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.108635, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.257447, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.163462, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": 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0.140733, 0.163264, 0.165855, 0.160875 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.133, "volume": 1016385, "typical_volume": 1921506.85, "trend": 0.153, "fair_value": 0.342943, "relative_strength": -29.370174, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.267165, "energy": 23.701046, "activity_lines": [ 0.1379, 0.155336, 0.163312, 0.15957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.1275, "volume": 1380992, "typical_volume": 1910436.0, "trend": 0.152933, "fair_value": 0.337869, "relative_strength": -31.062371, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.679364, "energy": 35.666681, "activity_lines": [ 0.133167, 0.147264, 0.160283, 0.157925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.13, "volume": 525788, "typical_volume": 1901280.05, "trend": 0.153433, "fair_value": 0.333042, "relative_strength": -30.218709, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.10341, "energy": 32.676072, "activity_lines": [ 0.130467, 0.140773, 0.157543, 0.156445 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.13, "volume": 1203320, "typical_volume": 1921240.75, "trend": 0.153433, "fair_value": 0.328388, "relative_strength": -30.468775, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.665853, "energy": 29.204147, "activity_lines": [ 0.130033, 0.1361, 0.154829, 0.154933 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.1235, "volume": 1102288, "typical_volume": 1943189.3, "trend": 0.153217, "fair_value": 0.323667, "relative_strength": -34.557676, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.524982, "energy": 40.827656, "activity_lines": [ 0.1277, 0.131755, 0.151507, 0.153002 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }