{ "ticker": { "uuid": "71267913-264c-4093-a1af-6b60ef48fb93", "symbol": "4906", "name": "Gemtek Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.171, "architecture_energy": 34.695, "architecture_maturity": 5.636, "architecture_confidence": 63.36, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.91, "rotation_up": 14.86, "upward_expansion": 19.22, "deceleration": 56.16, "rotation_down": 59.64, "downward_expansion": 44.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.256666, 36.318658, 38.608679, 37.754661 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 36.299999, "trend_reference": 35.572604, "distance_from_trend": 0.020448, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.243424, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.161844, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.685796, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.356615, "excess_performance": -0.084757, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.020448, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.122965, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.161844, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119476, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.146858, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110902, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.356615, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.924012, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20453372, "relative_activity": 0.17707, "balance": 0.924012, "dry_up": 0.199523, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.162877, "annualized_volatility": 0.682232, "from_high_reference": -0.342358, "from_low_reference": 0.609492 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.572604, "fair_value_reference": 31.243424, "structural_low": 24.779389, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.028408, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.025984, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.075571, "worst_return": -0.056944, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.009398, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.085042, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.181336, "worst_return": -0.054393, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.105889, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.019224, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.043451, "worst_return": -0.25523, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 33.79, 36.885592, 38.875327, 37.685616 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 36.299999, "volume": 20453372, "typical_volume": 115510202.7, "trend": 35.572604, "fair_value": 31.243424, "relative_strength": -14.685796, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.170783, "energy": 34.694736, "activity_lines": [ 34.256666, 36.318658, 38.608679, 37.754661 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }