{ "ticker": { "uuid": "71311251-7827-4b58-a4be-aeabaa9a7f1a", "symbol": "300043", "name": "Rastar Group", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.03, "architecture_energy": 27.407, "architecture_maturity": 64.247, "architecture_confidence": 63.644, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.61, "rotation_up": 26.45, "upward_expansion": 12.22, "deceleration": 63.42, "rotation_down": 36.73, "downward_expansion": 66.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.713333, 4.639988, 4.796183, 5.057624 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.81, "trend_reference": 5.458722, "distance_from_trend": -0.118841, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.132158, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.164041, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.162534, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.284226, "excess_performance": -0.291626, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.118841, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072955, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.164041, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.280053, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.171625, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051307, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.284226, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.839217, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 259374202, "relative_activity": 1.300676, "balance": 0.839217, "dry_up": 1.628019, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.121862, "annualized_volatility": 0.645501, "from_high_reference": -0.412698, "from_low_reference": 0.217722 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.458722, "fair_value_reference": 4.132158, "structural_low": 3.95, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.053628, "positive_rate": 0.65, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.039744, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.263889, "worst_return": -0.214067, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.076851, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.022008, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.627119, "worst_return": -0.135593, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.12218, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.689858, "worst_return": -0.253822, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.151197, "energy": 33.190666, "activity_lines": [ 4.734651, 4.633375, 4.942445, 5.234602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.27, "volume": 246821725, "typical_volume": 189236383.9, "trend": 5.519722, "fair_value": 4.115329, "relative_strength": -24.103083, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.401339, "energy": 30.415785, "activity_lines": [ 4.633333, 4.55842, 4.854056, 5.150298 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.76, "volume": 277274180, "typical_volume": 193778157.75, "trend": 5.486722, "fair_value": 4.123264, "relative_strength": -13.921692, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.307252, "energy": 23.259133, "activity_lines": [ 4.69, 4.592656, 4.820096, 5.101283 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.81, "volume": 259374202, "typical_volume": 199414975.95, "trend": 5.458722, "fair_value": 4.132158, "relative_strength": -17.162534, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.029671, "energy": 27.406887, "activity_lines": [ 4.713333, 4.639988, 4.796183, 5.057624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }