{ "ticker": { "uuid": "71356f1f-78d4-4900-855c-bba30d3a5335", "symbol": "UB82", "name": "UBS Core BBG US Treasury 1-10 UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 60.44, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -28.656, "architecture_energy": 26.565, "architecture_maturity": 15.407, "architecture_confidence": 60.698, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.85, "rotation_up": 17.31, "upward_expansion": 8.36, "deceleration": 62.5, "rotation_down": 60.31, "downward_expansion": 47.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 2863.566667, 2874.281818, 2872.140476, 2873.005388 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2858.0, "trend_reference": 2873.193311, "distance_from_trend": -0.005288, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2923.679047, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.022465, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.227179, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.002339, "excess_performance": -0.053574, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005288, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004251, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.022465, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012032, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.092272, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012272, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.002339, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.850179, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 866, "relative_activity": 0.863754, "balance": 0.850179, "dry_up": 1.099392, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.00866, "annualized_volatility": 0.056906, "from_high_reference": -0.262256, "from_low_reference": 0.016465 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2873.193311, "fair_value_reference": 2923.679047, "structural_low": 2825.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.002163, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.004271, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.352786, "worst_return": -0.02282, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.003712, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.027476, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.045388, "worst_return": -0.044625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.008392, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.06608, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.007438, 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"energy": 15.542563, "activity_lines": [ 2883.433333, 2882.745455, 2875.228571, 2875.207714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2879.5, "volume": 824, "typical_volume": 986.4, "trend": 2875.57312, "fair_value": 2924.340446, "relative_strength": -7.777773, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.627551, "energy": 8.648562, "activity_lines": [ 2879.2, 2882.809091, 2875.511905, 2875.471386 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2854.0, "volume": 1482, "typical_volume": 1000.75, "trend": 2874.649845, "fair_value": 2924.001729, "relative_strength": -9.375875, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.356935, "energy": 26.611506, "activity_lines": [ 2868.333333, 2878.2, 2873.5, 2874.079571 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2858.0, "volume": 866, "typical_volume": 1002.6, "trend": 2873.193311, "fair_value": 2923.679047, "relative_strength": -9.227179, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.65602, "energy": 26.564669, "activity_lines": [ 2863.566667, 2874.281818, 2872.140476, 2873.005388 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }