{ "ticker": { "uuid": "713978cd-028d-4c02-99ad-b8204ab40b23", "symbol": "532", "name": "DISA Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 73.065, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -0.035, "architecture_energy": 0.085, "architecture_maturity": 18.489, "architecture_confidence": 72.704, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 70.09, "rotation_up": 29.11, "upward_expansion": 0.0, "deceleration": 49.48, "rotation_down": 28.95, "downward_expansion": 4.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.001, 0.001, 0.001, 0.001 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.001, "trend_reference": 0.001, "distance_from_trend": 0.0, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.001447, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.30886, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -25.408327, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.154835, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0625, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.30886, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058829, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.254083, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013714, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": null, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 125229800, "relative_activity": 7.314011, "balance": null, "dry_up": 2.74667, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.230769, "annualized_volatility": 0.0, "from_high_reference": -0.5, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.001, "fair_value_reference": 0.001447, "structural_low": 0.001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.034495, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 6.0, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.181818, "median_excess_return": -0.007892, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 2.0, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.095892, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.161864, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-01-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, 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"typical_volume": 6836340.0, "trend": 0.001033, "fair_value": 0.001492, "relative_strength": -23.757268, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.150079, "energy": 11.670121, "activity_lines": [ 0.001, 0.001, 0.001, 0.001004 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.001, "volume": 18298400, "typical_volume": 7751260.0, "trend": 0.001033, "fair_value": 0.001479, "relative_strength": -26.544801, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.392517, "energy": 10.260406, "activity_lines": [ 0.001, 0.001, 0.001, 0.001002 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.001, "volume": 6791700, "typical_volume": 8090845.0, "trend": 0.001, "fair_value": 0.001473, "relative_strength": -25.374085, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.209656, "energy": 0.510163, "activity_lines": [ 0.001, 0.001, 0.001, 0.001 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.001, "volume": 2220100, "typical_volume": 8171850.0, "trend": 0.001, "fair_value": 0.00146, "relative_strength": -24.69871, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.157249, "energy": 0.382639, "activity_lines": [ 0.001, 0.001, 0.001, 0.001 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.001, "volume": 53871300, "typical_volume": 10865415.0, "trend": 0.001, "fair_value": 0.001453, "relative_strength": -24.85242, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.104836, "energy": 0.255101, "activity_lines": [ 0.001, 0.001, 0.001, 0.001 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.001, "volume": 125229800, "typical_volume": 17121905.0, "trend": 0.001, "fair_value": 0.001447, "relative_strength": -25.408327, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.034946, "energy": 0.085036, "activity_lines": [ 0.001, 0.001, 0.001, 0.001 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }