{ "ticker": { "uuid": "713a9946-d527-4b88-9a4e-75e6e04c5542", "symbol": "HKPD", "name": "Hong Kong Pharma Digital Technology Holdings Limited Ordinary shares", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.558, "architecture_energy": 33.938, "architecture_maturity": 45.08, "architecture_confidence": 69.263, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.24, "rotation_up": 23.56, "upward_expansion": 10.96, "deceleration": 62.97, "rotation_down": 40.53, "downward_expansion": 67.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.411707, 0.411198, 0.460956, 0.511446 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.42, "trend_reference": 0.587902, "distance_from_trend": -0.285595, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.029588, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.59207, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -55.475841, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.49214, "excess_performance": -0.679594, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.285595, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.214019, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.59207, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13791, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.554758, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052427, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.49214, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.036779, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 260645, "relative_activity": 0.097869, "balance": 0.036779, "dry_up": 2.801257, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.262628, "annualized_volatility": 0.773315, "from_high_reference": -0.837209, "from_low_reference": 0.354839 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.587902, "fair_value_reference": 1.029588, "structural_low": 0.31, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.150055, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2025-01-17", "close": 2.75, "volume": 1939799, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-24", "close": 2.34, "volume": 7265163, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-31", "close": 2.0, "volume": 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"energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.38, "volume": 4856355, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.3652, "volume": 23357109, "typical_volume": 2590803.3, "trend": 0.611882, "fair_value": 1.044547, "relative_strength": -60.640359, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.477838, "energy": 46.075991, "activity_lines": [ 0.395747, 0.411175, 0.479764, 0.53397 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.4425, "volume": 1367019, "typical_volume": 2657120.75, "trend": 0.599738, "fair_value": 1.037114, "relative_strength": -51.669412, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.281946, "energy": 37.994337, "activity_lines": [ 0.410193, 0.412436, 0.471032, 0.523042 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.42, "volume": 260645, "typical_volume": 2663190.5, "trend": 0.587902, "fair_value": 1.029588, "relative_strength": -55.475841, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.557873, "energy": 33.938432, "activity_lines": [ 0.411707, 0.411198, 0.460956, 0.511446 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }