{ "ticker": { "uuid": "713b686b-7088-4100-b45e-130e1a24ba19", "symbol": "603611", "name": "Noblelift Intelligent Equipment Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.323, "architecture_energy": 48.451, "architecture_maturity": 72.853, "architecture_confidence": 90.038, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.06, "rotation_up": 24.71, "upward_expansion": 7.31, "deceleration": 58.88, "rotation_down": 49.93, "downward_expansion": 78.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.724667, 16.875818, 17.560931, 18.436201 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 17.110001, "trend_reference": 19.772247, "distance_from_trend": -0.134646, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.626146, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.081399, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.532129, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.246441, "excess_performance": -0.203237, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.134646, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088642, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.081399, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142958, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.195321, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027018, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.246441, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.331129, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13523494, "relative_activity": 1.082755, "balance": 0.331129, "dry_up": 0.943937, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074675, "annualized_volatility": 0.343255, "from_high_reference": -0.395876, "from_low_reference": 0.084284 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.772247, "fair_value_reference": 18.626146, "structural_low": 15.78, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.000632, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": 0.006413, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.138241, "worst_return": -0.08, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.056559, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.036344, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.476698, "worst_return": -0.205711, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.150622, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.13741, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.474899, "worst_return": 0.104379, "sufficient": false }, { 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59.424801, "activity_lines": [ 16.952667, 17.287091, 18.148711, 19.124266 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.91, "volume": 12594322, "typical_volume": 13420357.15, "trend": 20.192622, "fair_value": 18.695461, "relative_strength": -23.727319, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.496457, "energy": 58.120832, "activity_lines": [ 16.594667, 16.967455, 17.851828, 18.834716 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.889999, "volume": 10782049, "typical_volume": 12874181.6, "trend": 19.984369, "fair_value": 18.65409, "relative_strength": -18.830361, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.19716, "energy": 53.088861, "activity_lines": [ 16.652666, 16.884727, 17.681874, 18.621644 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.110001, "volume": 13523494, "typical_volume": 12489896.05, "trend": 19.772247, "fair_value": 18.626146, "relative_strength": -19.532129, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.322992, "energy": 48.451256, "activity_lines": [ 16.724667, 16.875818, 17.560931, 18.436201 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }