{ "ticker": { "uuid": "713ca825-964e-40fe-83fd-84e612093985", "symbol": "IVDF", "name": "Invesco Markets II plc - Invesco Defence Innovation UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.104, "architecture_energy": 17.199, "architecture_maturity": 46.089, "architecture_confidence": 87.533, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.64, "rotation_up": 30.5, "upward_expansion": 48.98, "deceleration": 81.19, "rotation_down": 30.89, "downward_expansion": 26.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.914333, 8.943727, 8.993157, 8.858342 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 9.387, "trend_reference": 8.690667, "distance_from_trend": 0.080124, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.852761, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.369813, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.683791, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.17942, "excess_performance": 0.008528, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.080124, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080897, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.369813, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039509, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.016838, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0471, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.17942, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.568032, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41641, "relative_activity": 0.757859, "balance": 1.568032, "dry_up": 0.738972, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059682, "annualized_volatility": 0.30169, "from_high_reference": -0.084195, "from_low_reference": 0.508679 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.690667, "fair_value_reference": 6.852761, "structural_low": 7.715, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.065252, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.044288, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.065252, "worst_return": 0.065252, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.064718, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065252, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-08", "close": 4.995, "volume": 23598, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-15", "close": 4.941, "volume": 52749, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, 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"2026-07-24", "close": 8.852, "volume": 39668, "typical_volume": 58633.4, "trend": 8.609467, "fair_value": 6.804756, "relative_strength": -0.179918, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.669913, "energy": 18.105232, "activity_lines": [ 8.788667, 8.985455, 8.955271, 8.809161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.639, "volume": 44027, "typical_volume": 56130.9, "trend": 8.654233, "fair_value": 6.824912, "relative_strength": -3.409549, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.552704, "energy": 16.020454, "activity_lines": [ 8.7248, 8.890382, 8.939262, 8.811067 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.387, "volume": 41641, "typical_volume": 54945.6, "trend": 8.690667, "fair_value": 6.852761, "relative_strength": 1.683791, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.104074, "energy": 17.199138, "activity_lines": [ 8.914333, 8.943727, 8.993157, 8.858342 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }