{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7140acf7-8677-48d3-b268-f13192d7c695", "symbol": "PLCR", "name": "Plasto-Cargal Group Ltd", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.369, "architecture_energy": 61.081, "architecture_maturity": 87.147, "architecture_confidence": 65.92, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.86, "rotation_up": 27.97, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 65.54, "rotation_down": 50.68, "downward_expansion": 72.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.6002, 4.586636, 4.812886, 5.102019 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.707, "trend_reference": 5.486467, "distance_from_trend": -0.142071, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.861128, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.031706, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.757773, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.22493, "excess_performance": -0.25383, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.142071, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081066, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.031706, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12062, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.277578, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088189, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.22493, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.590651, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.590651, "dry_up": 0.532278, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032423, "annualized_volatility": 0.222385, "from_high_reference": -0.345341, "from_low_reference": 0.112503 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.486467, "fair_value_reference": 4.861128, "structural_low": 4.231, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.042251, "positive_rate": 0.44, "directional_follow_through": 0.56, "median_excess_return": -0.032978, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.275313, "worst_return": -0.586652, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.005789, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.143643, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.183714, "worst_return": -0.665689, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.084953, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.130687, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.468656, "worst_return": -0.885849, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.163286, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024209, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.290376, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.19159, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.093505, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-28", 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"activity_lines": [ 4.4078, 4.628909, 4.977457, 5.28188 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.586, "volume": 7982, "typical_volume": 6399.5, "trend": 5.598133, "fair_value": 4.853423, "relative_strength": -32.739062, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.497035, "energy": 86.512866, "activity_lines": [ 4.4342, 4.589527, 4.90681, 5.213441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.707, "volume": 319, "typical_volume": 6397.5, "trend": 5.5429, "fair_value": 4.856846, "relative_strength": -28.356196, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.718861, "energy": 67.148404, "activity_lines": [ 4.5232, 4.583436, 4.855986, 5.155948 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.707, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 6397.5, "trend": 5.486467, "fair_value": 4.861128, "relative_strength": -27.757773, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.36873, "energy": 61.081201, "activity_lines": [ 4.6002, 4.586636, 4.812886, 5.102019 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }