{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7143bdf1-daf2-46f3-b47f-ceda83180b51", "symbol": "VHI", "name": "Valhi Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 31.184, "architecture_energy": 20.977, "architecture_maturity": 34.097, "architecture_confidence": 71.007, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.99, "rotation_up": 40.5, "upward_expansion": 44.3, "deceleration": 37.28, "rotation_down": 35.48, "downward_expansion": 18.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.362, 14.234727, 14.146077, 14.105789 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 15.89, "trend_reference": 14.109268, "distance_from_trend": 0.12621, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.653384, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.04584, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.206865, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.036086, "excess_performance": -0.089539, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.12621, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040654, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.04584, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084427, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.002069, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.124443, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.036086, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.936203, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 114198, "relative_activity": 1.819816, "balance": 0.936203, "dry_up": 0.869766, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091319, "annualized_volatility": 0.447824, "from_high_reference": -0.080346, "from_low_reference": 0.404693 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.109268, "fair_value_reference": 16.653384, "structural_low": 11.934111, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.02766, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": 0.02637, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.170931, "worst_return": -0.199278, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.048827, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.026499, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.673584, "worst_return": -0.456524, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.149116, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.071648, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.487269, "worst_return": -0.483587, "sufficient": true }, { 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-14.553014, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.761482, "energy": 11.364199, "activity_lines": [ 14.107333, 14.066731, 14.054838, 14.037753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.89, "volume": 54359, "typical_volume": 69663.9, "trend": 13.924501, "fair_value": 16.631211, "relative_strength": -10.482028, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.093042, "energy": 10.108454, "activity_lines": [ 14.0, 14.049484, 14.048197, 14.040136 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.62, "volume": 25423, "typical_volume": 66126.35, "trend": 13.980337, "fair_value": 16.626344, "relative_strength": -10.956749, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.52373, "energy": 11.792548, "activity_lines": [ 13.863333, 13.992609, 14.015479, 14.020491 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.44, "volume": 24340, "typical_volume": 61349.35, "trend": 14.027536, "fair_value": 16.628538, "relative_strength": -12.554558, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.979868, "energy": 26.758785, "activity_lines": [ 13.660667, 13.900382, 13.964186, 13.98563 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.89, "volume": 114198, "typical_volume": 62752.5, "trend": 14.109268, "fair_value": 16.653384, "relative_strength": 0.206865, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.1844, "energy": 20.977304, "activity_lines": [ 14.362, 14.234727, 14.146077, 14.105789 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }