{ "ticker": { "uuid": "714b17cd-9035-4a78-834a-c38ebb8e885f", "symbol": "XO3S", "name": "Leverage Shares -3x Short Exxon (XOM) ETP Securities", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.084, "architecture_energy": 59.676, "architecture_maturity": 19.481, "architecture_confidence": 70.711, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.14, "rotation_up": 10.76, "upward_expansion": 10.68, "deceleration": 42.74, "rotation_down": 76.02, "downward_expansion": 81.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.143667, 2.410909, 2.479381, 2.510151 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.1, "trend_reference": 2.687167, "distance_from_trend": -0.218508, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.928177, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.788481, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -58.759646, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.302326, "excess_performance": -0.353561, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.218508, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.319705, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.788481, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035452, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.587596, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007208, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.302326, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.015867, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 244, "relative_activity": 0.024118, "balance": 0.015867, "dry_up": 1.602756, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.156044, "annualized_volatility": 0.907645, "from_high_reference": -0.787342, "from_low_reference": 0.213873 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.687167, "fair_value_reference": 9.928177, "structural_low": 1.73, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.056338, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.077068, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.537383, "worst_return": -0.442593, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.116364, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.179467, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.68306, "worst_return": -0.698765, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.343243, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.465054, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.327228, "worst_return": -0.493004, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.290478, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.245353, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.259009, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.667027, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.323432, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", 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10.020516, "relative_strength": -61.008728, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.06018, "energy": 50.725123, "activity_lines": [ 2.263333, 2.497182, 2.515024, 2.555129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.1, "volume": 244, "typical_volume": 10116.95, "trend": 2.687167, "fair_value": 9.928177, "relative_strength": -58.759646, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.083866, "energy": 59.675793, "activity_lines": [ 2.143667, 2.410909, 2.479381, 2.510151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }