{ "ticker": { "uuid": "714b4eb3-fe5e-43cb-9816-0b6b2bd4054e", "symbol": "XAD", "name": "iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.774, "architecture_energy": 44.515, "architecture_maturity": 41.719, "architecture_confidence": 66.044, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.54, "rotation_up": 51.23, "upward_expansion": 74.6, "deceleration": 66.09, "rotation_down": 24.37, "downward_expansion": 10.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 110.317333, 109.896632, 106.814422, 105.348259 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 114.18, "trend_reference": 104.34124, "distance_from_trend": 0.094294, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 76.060796, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.501168, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.999032, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.103295, "excess_performance": -0.017126, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.094294, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04642, "read": "Rising" 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"invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.016726, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.01238, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.086698, "worst_return": -0.098012, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.095069, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.015423, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.190958, "worst_return": -0.066133, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.153861, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.000304, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.195527, "worst_return": 0.112196, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 11955.0, "trend": 104.34124, "fair_value": 76.060796, "relative_strength": 1.999032, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.773545, "energy": 44.514844, "activity_lines": [ 110.317333, 109.896632, 106.814422, 105.348259 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }