{ "ticker": { "uuid": "714bae4c-1ed1-4291-aeab-c7863ebc6939", "symbol": "BRILL", "name": "Brilliant Future AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.865, "architecture_energy": 67.166, "architecture_maturity": 82.938, "architecture_confidence": 92.2, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.62, "rotation_up": 16.04, "upward_expansion": 14.24, "deceleration": 39.84, "rotation_down": 67.62, "downward_expansion": 89.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.721333, 3.768727, 3.852381, 3.934366 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.7, "trend_reference": 4.051333, "distance_from_trend": -0.08672, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.872692, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.240666, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.661862, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.147465, "excess_performance": -0.20896, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.08672, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041483, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.240666, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021056, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.246619, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033649, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.147465, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.726297, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3075, "relative_activity": 0.467549, "balance": 0.726297, "dry_up": 0.532246, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040748, "annualized_volatility": 0.205229, "from_high_reference": -0.367521, "from_low_reference": 0.022099 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.051333, "fair_value_reference": 4.872692, "structural_low": 3.62, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.004405, "positive_rate": 0.36, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.034242, "regime_survival": 0.88, "best_return": 0.166667, "worst_return": -0.175159, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.030822, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.127672, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.131687, "worst_return": -0.205521, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.044516, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.108761, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.134021, "worst_return": -0.256135, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051429, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.096, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038462, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032787, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.107456, 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4.13, "fair_value": 4.95, "relative_strength": -23.038429, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.357202, "energy": 47.495428, "activity_lines": [ 3.842667, 3.882182, 3.952, 4.032129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.74, "volume": 5242, "typical_volume": 6810.15, "trend": 4.116, "fair_value": 4.930513, "relative_strength": -22.04153, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.94015, "energy": 44.971288, "activity_lines": [ 3.808, 3.848, 3.924571, 4.006968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.76, "volume": 4658, "typical_volume": 6704.75, "trend": 4.097333, "fair_value": 4.910128, "relative_strength": -22.276588, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.085622, "energy": 51.2248, "activity_lines": [ 3.786667, 3.822182, 3.90181, 3.984 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.7, "volume": 1027, "typical_volume": 6507.45, "trend": 4.072, "fair_value": 4.890769, "relative_strength": -23.869371, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.495058, "energy": 66.600583, "activity_lines": [ 3.744, 3.792727, 3.876, 3.958366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.7, "volume": 3075, "typical_volume": 6576.85, "trend": 4.051333, "fair_value": 4.872692, "relative_strength": -24.661862, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.865003, "energy": 67.166076, "activity_lines": [ 3.721333, 3.768727, 3.852381, 3.934366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }