{ "ticker": { "uuid": "714ef516-ca01-4cf3-a32c-943f925e4c80", "symbol": "GYT", "name": "The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -3.984, "architecture_energy": 15.291, "architecture_maturity": 26.344, "architecture_confidence": 58.836, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.93, "rotation_up": 39.32, "upward_expansion": 35.4, "deceleration": 42.28, "rotation_down": 16.88, "downward_expansion": 41.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.985067, 5.917673, 5.742781, 5.866619 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.756, "trend_reference": 6.2525, "distance_from_trend": -0.079408, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.976776, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.35879, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -29.228173, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.34427, "excess_performance": -0.518517, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.079408, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073443, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.35879, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039392, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.292282, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062348, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.34427, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.142262, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5993, "relative_activity": 1.829253, "balance": 2.142262, "dry_up": 1.242217, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079128, "annualized_volatility": 0.451774, "from_high_reference": -0.363837, "from_low_reference": 0.205445 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.2525, "fair_value_reference": 8.976776, "structural_low": 4.775, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.001227, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.025241, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.098765, "worst_return": -0.163666, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.046817, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.049346, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.157043, "worst_return": -0.312096, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.012378, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.220162, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.129215, "worst_return": -0.321059, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.268868, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.323878, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.024285, "worst_return": -0.347737, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.178097, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.073966, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.185263, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.183285, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.162462, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027519, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.169668, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.009981, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056312, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.065136, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061218, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.105013, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.029091, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.086059, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 11.586, "volume": 1582, "typical_volume": 2471.2, "trend": 11.466267, "fair_value": 12.565461, "relative_strength": 2.112947, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.187781, "energy": 17.129645, "activity_lines": [ 12.287733, 12.6608, 12.524348, 12.038226 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 11.798, "volume": 2373, "typical_volume": 2536.6, "trend": 11.5202, "fair_value": 12.588429, "relative_strength": 5.305113, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.490039, "energy": 22.861434, "activity_lines": [ 11.941467, 12.493782, 12.501671, 12.059628 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 12.33, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2536.6, "trend": 11.571, "fair_value": 12.616135, "relative_strength": 8.100995, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.821641, "energy": 21.183696, "activity_lines": [ 11.938933, 12.436618, 12.518538, 12.111873 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 11.964, "volume": 2373, "typical_volume": 2503.75, "trend": 11.6344, "fair_value": 12.641327, "relative_strength": 6.253824, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.879748, "energy": 16.479981, "activity_lines": [ 11.966267, 12.3088, 12.489176, 12.137228 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-15", "close": 11.922, "volume": 791, "typical_volume": 2543.3, "trend": 11.665667, "fair_value": 12.669526, "relative_strength": 4.976832, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.589164, "energy": 11.718357, "activity_lines": [ 11.975867, 12.182327, 12.444476, 12.155783 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-22", "close": 11.664, "volume": 3955, "typical_volume": 2539.05, "trend": 11.699867, "fair_value": 12.70375, "relative_strength": 3.748435, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.439021, "energy": 10.010206, "activity_lines": [ 11.890533, 12.019345, 12.365019, 12.155675 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-29", "close": 11.784, "volume": 1582, "typical_volume": 2357.5, "trend": 11.722067, "fair_value": 12.733737, "relative_strength": 4.645025, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.066772, "energy": 11.267943, "activity_lines": [ 11.84, 11.909855, 12.28979, 12.161103 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-06", "close": 10.988, "volume": 1738, "typical_volume": 2212.4, "trend": 11.7352, "fair_value": 12.75225, "relative_strength": -0.590173, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.693488, "energy": 33.434706, "activity_lines": [ 11.525067, 11.701273, 12.14719, 12.113744 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-13", "close": 11.536, "volume": 1738, "typical_volume": 2198.3, "trend": 11.801067, "fair_value": 12.772878, "relative_strength": 3.741033, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.592544, "energy": 37.648461, "activity_lines": [ 11.482267, 11.658145, 12.065743, 12.100892 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-20", "close": 11.608, "volume": 2607, 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5.978, "volume": 23607, "typical_volume": 2925.15, "trend": 6.455767, "fair_value": 9.158827, "relative_strength": -28.831642, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.764773, "energy": 27.396818, "activity_lines": [ 5.8148, 5.571164, 5.618314, 5.954529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.226, "volume": 3152, "typical_volume": 3001.25, "trend": 6.408767, "fair_value": 9.107109, "relative_strength": -23.265801, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.58558, "energy": 25.333847, "activity_lines": [ 5.985333, 5.712455, 5.662643, 5.939705 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.298, "volume": 5343, "typical_volume": 3268.4, "trend": 6.3741, "fair_value": 9.05384, "relative_strength": -22.261249, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 10.028643, "energy": 28.066515, "activity_lines": [ 6.125467, 5.858436, 5.717533, 5.932559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.918, "volume": 1791, "typical_volume": 3307.95, "trend": 6.321967, "fair_value": 9.015442, "relative_strength": -25.806606, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.8095, "energy": 20.875533, "activity_lines": [ 6.079733, 5.910073, 5.737357, 5.903133 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.756, "volume": 5993, "typical_volume": 3276.2, "trend": 6.2525, "fair_value": 8.976776, "relative_strength": -29.228173, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.984076, "energy": 15.290506, "activity_lines": [ 5.985067, 5.917673, 5.742781, 5.866619 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }