{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7150a54f-397f-4b82-86d7-235bc56189e8", "symbol": "9613", "name": "Shalfa Facilities Management Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 23.856, "architecture_energy": 16.625, "architecture_maturity": 40.543, "architecture_confidence": 89.179, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.49, "rotation_up": 21.65, "upward_expansion": 53.67, "deceleration": 88.32, "rotation_down": 35.58, "downward_expansion": 22.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 59.333333, 59.855454, 59.723333, 59.111182 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 59.0, "trend_reference": 58.013333, "distance_from_trend": 0.017008, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 67.961413, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.13186, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.476505, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.104869, "excess_performance": 0.136698, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.017008, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025272, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.13186, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073945, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.024765, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.126616, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.104869, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.952714, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35, "relative_activity": 0.012109, "balance": 1.952714, "dry_up": 1.173693, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029465, "annualized_volatility": 0.266301, "from_high_reference": -0.218543, "from_low_reference": 0.282609 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 58.013333, "fair_value_reference": 67.961413, "structural_low": 53.400002, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.016949, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.025501, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.016949, "worst_return": 0.016949, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017241, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064407, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074788, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032787, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-08", "close": 84.900002, "volume": 139176, "typical_volume": null, "trend": 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"close": 61.0, "volume": 10136, "typical_volume": 2722.2, "trend": 57.893333, "fair_value": 68.263483, "relative_strength": 6.163058, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.858802, "energy": 25.437702, "activity_lines": [ 60.323333, 60.682727, 59.740476, 58.914408 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 59.0, "volume": 2778, "typical_volume": 2860.75, "trend": 58.043333, "fair_value": 68.160555, "relative_strength": 2.340403, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.871527, "energy": 19.197332, "activity_lines": [ 59.933333, 60.419091, 59.741904, 58.985806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 59.0, "volume": 621, "typical_volume": 2888.7, "trend": 58.013333, "fair_value": 68.05989, "relative_strength": 4.620368, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.433869, "energy": 17.711508, "activity_lines": [ 59.6, 60.137272, 59.73619, 59.047527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 59.0, "volume": 35, "typical_volume": 2890.45, "trend": 58.013333, "fair_value": 67.961413, "relative_strength": 2.476505, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.855707, "energy": 16.62481, "activity_lines": [ 59.333333, 59.855454, 59.723333, 59.111182 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }