{ "ticker": { "uuid": "71565651-3550-4e9b-99dd-df15be539148", "symbol": "CTMX", "name": "CytomX Therapeutics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.218, "architecture_energy": 40.093, "architecture_maturity": 49.944, "architecture_confidence": 87.029, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.32, "rotation_up": 24.88, "upward_expansion": 5.61, "deceleration": 55.25, "rotation_down": 42.89, "downward_expansion": 74.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.361333, 3.398, 3.524952, 3.804495 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.46, "trend_reference": 4.246667, "distance_from_trend": -0.185243, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.256498, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.533349, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.593491, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.389771, "excess_performance": -0.577224, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.185243, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055106, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.533349, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.347856, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.215935, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1462, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.389771, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.78935, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12663552, "relative_activity": 0.629359, "balance": 0.78935, "dry_up": 0.770707, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124611, "annualized_volatility": 0.54585, "from_high_reference": -0.578563, "from_low_reference": 1.011628 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.246667, "fair_value_reference": 2.256498, "structural_low": 2.815, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.043331, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": -0.033406, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 2.094512, "worst_return": -0.301075, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.169772, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.152869, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 2.380282, "worst_return": -0.536131, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.224733, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.304513, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.6933, "worst_return": -0.662005, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.224638, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.256637, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.041858, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.098522, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09434, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-26", 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"fair_value": 2.226498, "relative_strength": -14.319234, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.330736, "energy": 26.892394, "activity_lines": [ 3.623333, 3.474182, 3.701667, 4.007333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.24, "volume": 16710670, "typical_volume": 29943012.7, "trend": 4.314667, "fair_value": 2.236049, "relative_strength": -22.18802, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.927434, "energy": 28.976838, "activity_lines": [ 3.533333, 3.435455, 3.633143, 3.935527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.1, "volume": 11134764, "typical_volume": 29699860.1, "trend": 4.276333, "fair_value": 2.245088, "relative_strength": -26.015001, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.394941, "energy": 42.635268, "activity_lines": [ 3.377333, 3.378, 3.558143, 3.857161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.46, "volume": 12663552, "typical_volume": 20121363.45, "trend": 4.246667, "fair_value": 2.256498, "relative_strength": -21.593491, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.218222, "energy": 40.093285, "activity_lines": [ 3.361333, 3.398, 3.524952, 3.804495 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }