{ "ticker": { "uuid": "71565a37-cbf8-4328-bbc3-81f8af0c8819", "symbol": "VOLX", "name": "BetaPro S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -78.911, "architecture_energy": 68.659, "architecture_maturity": 68.186, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.05, "rotation_up": 27.68, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 56.94, "rotation_down": 58.75, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.550667, 14.933818, 16.252429, 17.650258 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.87, "trend_reference": 18.877, "distance_from_trend": -0.265243, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 34.015769, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.592248, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.865923, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.269231, "excess_performance": -0.389652, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.265243, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09267, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.592248, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08312, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.408659, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069597, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.269231, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.203197, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 153100, "relative_activity": 0.500392, "balance": 0.203197, "dry_up": 0.669695, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083301, "annualized_volatility": 0.496221, "from_high_reference": -0.517061, "from_low_reference": 0.005801 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.877, "fair_value_reference": 34.015769, "structural_low": 13.79, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": -0.057179, "positive_rate": 0.372093, "directional_follow_through": 0.627907, "median_excess_return": -0.058146, "regime_survival": 0.883721, "best_return": 0.487871, "worst_return": -0.295685, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.178542, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": -0.231404, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.068965, "worst_return": -0.286082, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.346341, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.404353, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.124138, "worst_return": -0.43097, "sufficient": true 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-35.875247, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.15359, "energy": 84.968777, "activity_lines": [ 15.099333, 15.527273, 17.115048, 18.278043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.53, "volume": 261000, "typical_volume": 339055.0, "trend": 19.007667, "fair_value": 34.363013, "relative_strength": -37.227938, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.048481, "energy": 79.216265, "activity_lines": [ 14.887333, 15.258545, 16.692333, 17.98172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.87, "volume": 153100, "typical_volume": 305960.0, "trend": 18.877, "fair_value": 34.015769, "relative_strength": -40.865923, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.911421, "energy": 68.658919, "activity_lines": [ 14.550667, 14.933818, 16.252429, 17.650258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }