{ "ticker": { "uuid": "71566652-1df1-43c1-a7d9-ad012791ffe2", "symbol": "0069", "name": "Shangri-La Asia Limited", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.772, "architecture_energy": 25.508, "architecture_maturity": 82.045, "architecture_confidence": 63.529, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.96, "rotation_up": 24.23, "upward_expansion": 12.99, "deceleration": 46.65, "rotation_down": 33.57, "downward_expansion": 58.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.093, 4.099818, 4.09544, 4.160013 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.0, "trend_reference": 4.305521, "distance_from_trend": -0.07096, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.707087, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.150218, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.386052, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.145299, "excess_performance": -0.119383, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.07096, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054706, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.150218, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015797, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.073861, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014627, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.145299, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.73246, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2675100, "relative_activity": 1.458565, "balance": 1.73246, "dry_up": 1.935732, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036731, "annualized_volatility": 0.154209, "from_high_reference": -0.257885, "from_low_reference": 0.025641 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.305521, "fair_value_reference": 4.707087, "structural_low": 3.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.002513, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.000823, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.242236, "worst_return": -0.1424, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.006962, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.006351, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.436526, "worst_return": -0.112245, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.064275, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.002925, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.650334, "worst_return": -0.218905, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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1670166.6, "trend": 4.368688, "fair_value": 4.720673, "relative_strength": -7.891499, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.397278, "energy": 17.808472, "activity_lines": [ 4.133, 4.104455, 4.110535, 4.196435 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 4.145, "volume": 7622952, "typical_volume": 1849172.5, "trend": 4.340854, "fair_value": 4.714017, "relative_strength": -7.30533, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.649037, "energy": 12.777962, "activity_lines": [ 4.137333, 4.116818, 4.109529, 4.182004 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 4.0, "volume": 2675100, "typical_volume": 1834062.5, "trend": 4.305521, "fair_value": 4.707087, "relative_strength": -7.386052, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.772083, "energy": 25.508081, "activity_lines": [ 4.093, 4.099818, 4.09544, 4.160013 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }