{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7159048e-a48b-4954-8918-fecc8c5e65a7", "symbol": "605398", "name": "Shanghai New Centurion Network Information Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.025, "architecture_energy": 52.881, "architecture_maturity": 81.969, "architecture_confidence": 87.048, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.77, "rotation_up": 24.66, "upward_expansion": 8.65, "deceleration": 60.14, "rotation_down": 51.67, "downward_expansion": 79.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.918667, 20.201637, 21.997048, 23.696258 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 20.809999, "trend_reference": 26.046333, "distance_from_trend": -0.201039, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.965958, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.131685, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.772916, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.32457, "excess_performance": -0.281366, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.201039, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107095, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.131685, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.310435, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.257729, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099633, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.32457, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.899734, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9623200, "relative_activity": 1.002118, "balance": 0.899734, "dry_up": 1.04896, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114442, "annualized_volatility": 0.445803, "from_high_reference": -0.471827, "from_low_reference": 0.179705 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.046333, "fair_value_reference": 23.965958, "structural_low": 17.639999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.018956, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014701, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.14787, "worst_return": -0.250836, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.017211, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.015014, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.299815, "worst_return": -0.228096, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.33903, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.325335, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.554481, "worst_return": -0.268139, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.039779, "energy": 78.74753, "activity_lines": [ 20.232, 21.232, 23.349048, 25.028839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.110001, "volume": 10819861, "typical_volume": 10691912.3, "trend": 26.57, "fair_value": 23.94519, "relative_strength": -34.428759, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.746291, "energy": 71.601439, "activity_lines": [ 19.436, 20.461455, 22.689381, 24.461656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.200001, "volume": 8443978, "typical_volume": 9733692.4, "trend": 26.303667, "fair_value": 23.94847, "relative_strength": -26.590248, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.763873, "energy": 58.219872, "activity_lines": [ 19.595334, 20.226364, 22.292, 24.050688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.809999, "volume": 9623200, "typical_volume": 9602859.3, "trend": 26.046333, "fair_value": 23.965958, "relative_strength": -25.772916, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.025278, "energy": 52.881459, "activity_lines": [ 19.918667, 20.201637, 21.997048, 23.696258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }