{ "ticker": { "uuid": "715bc074-6f3e-489d-b94c-abd492a82540", "symbol": "CHIP", "name": "Amundi MSCI Semiconductors UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.879, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.543, "architecture_energy": 25.064, "architecture_maturity": 74.515, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.64, "rotation_up": 19.68, "upward_expansion": 54.22, "deceleration": 94.0, "rotation_down": 32.14, "downward_expansion": 20.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 108.779331, 111.555744, 109.788061, 103.518881 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 111.349998, "trend_reference": 95.257567, "distance_from_trend": 0.168936, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 56.993242, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.95374, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 25.730121, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.452574, "excess_performance": 0.399263, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.168936, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.178212, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.95374, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.158983, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.257301, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.269894, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.452574, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.012129, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 52710, "relative_activity": 0.787809, "balance": 2.012129, "dry_up": 1.289718, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075356, "annualized_volatility": 0.352696, "from_high_reference": -0.101219, "from_low_reference": 0.999102 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 95.257567, "fair_value_reference": 56.993242, "structural_low": 71.413002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.031936, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": 0.019909, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.305333, "worst_return": -0.1532, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.128938, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.123546, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.596371, "worst_return": -0.133774, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.185055, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.253978, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.50496, "worst_return": -0.049744, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.200865, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.087979, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.17709, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.19937, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.288532, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": 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43.59958, "energy": 36.182013, "activity_lines": [ 111.819332, 113.842508, 108.690619, 101.727671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 103.489998, "volume": 147893, "typical_volume": 69799.2, "trend": 94.051834, "fair_value": 56.451582, "relative_strength": 20.867012, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.423259, "energy": 25.086655, "activity_lines": [ 108.526665, 111.933581, 108.926995, 102.402871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 111.349998, "volume": 52710, "typical_volume": 66907.05, "trend": 95.257567, "fair_value": 56.993242, "relative_strength": 25.730121, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.542795, "energy": 25.06431, "activity_lines": [ 108.779331, 111.555744, 109.788061, 103.518881 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }