{ "ticker": { "uuid": "715f01c0-a230-43e0-b10f-1e43ea5bec0d", "symbol": "WHK", "name": "WhiteHawk Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.44, "architecture_energy": 48.25, "architecture_maturity": 69.88, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.76, "rotation_up": 27.52, "upward_expansion": 7.8, "deceleration": 52.74, "rotation_down": 51.48, "downward_expansion": 78.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.004067, 0.004118, 0.00475, 0.005276 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.004, "trend_reference": 0.005983, "distance_from_trend": -0.331476, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.013404, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.701578, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -50.616192, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.428571, "excess_performance": -0.492277, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.331476, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.196868, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.701578, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143241, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.506162, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.221774, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.428571, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.011921, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10489355, "relative_activity": 1.063181, "balance": 0.011921, "dry_up": 0.925174, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.211538, "annualized_volatility": 0.789579, "from_high_reference": -0.692308, "from_low_reference": 0.333333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.005983, "fair_value_reference": 0.013404, "structural_low": 0.003, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 46, "median_return": -0.018518, "positive_rate": 0.326087, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.042131, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 1.25, "worst_return": -0.458333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.125, "positive_rate": 0.294118, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": -0.096881, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.625, "worst_return": -0.525, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.237905, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.277232, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.3, "worst_return": -0.532963, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.277778, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.857084, "energy": 53.587047, "activity_lines": [ 0.004167, 0.004418, 0.005224, 0.005714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.004, "volume": 4557175, "typical_volume": 9536898.1, "trend": 0.006267, "fair_value": 0.01384, "relative_strength": -49.606845, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.5615, "energy": 55.234469, "activity_lines": [ 0.004133, 0.004282, 0.005055, 0.005559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.004, "volume": 21288038, "typical_volume": 10320954.25, "trend": 0.006117, "fair_value": 0.013609, "relative_strength": -49.876721, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.277065, "energy": 51.03447, "activity_lines": [ 0.0041, 0.004182, 0.004895, 0.005413 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.004, "volume": 10489355, "typical_volume": 9866012.75, "trend": 0.005983, "fair_value": 0.013404, "relative_strength": -50.616192, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.439533, "energy": 48.250107, "activity_lines": [ 0.004067, 0.004118, 0.00475, 0.005276 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }