{ "ticker": { "uuid": "716157a5-1d91-457f-adbc-6ad6f125a854", "symbol": "DMEU", "name": "Desjardins American Equity Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.748, "architecture_energy": 55.857, "architecture_maturity": 86.424, "architecture_confidence": 59.141, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.3, "rotation_up": 47.57, "upward_expansion": 76.07, "deceleration": 71.44, "rotation_down": 29.28, "downward_expansion": 14.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.646666, 30.581952, 30.107535, 29.37554 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 31.23, "trend_reference": 28.544777, "distance_from_trend": 0.094071, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.898538, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.254291, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.14344, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.146493, "excess_performance": 0.026072, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.094071, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038547, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.254291, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050365, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.001434, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012287, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.146493, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.427273, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23700, "relative_activity": 0.334793, "balance": 4.427273, "dry_up": 0.846165, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023196, "annualized_volatility": 0.132342, "from_high_reference": -0.011396, "from_low_reference": 0.23686 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.544777, "fair_value_reference": 24.898538, "structural_low": 25.4, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.01523, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.017238, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.033976, "worst_return": -0.038296, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.015095, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.042347, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.033809, "worst_return": -0.00362, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.030067, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.086922, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.030067, "worst_return": 0.030067, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": 1.450312, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.98282, "energy": 78.511032, "activity_lines": [ 30.467159, 30.184425, 29.200558, 28.605735 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 31.040001, "volume": 45300, "typical_volume": 110640.0, "trend": 28.131321, "fair_value": 24.706864, "relative_strength": 1.780085, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.612589, "energy": 83.392664, "activity_lines": [ 30.711197, 30.399611, 29.457529, 28.801864 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.24, "volume": 55000, "typical_volume": 99780.0, "trend": 28.233324, "fair_value": 24.753755, "relative_strength": -0.6153, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.172028, "energy": 63.723438, "activity_lines": [ 30.604597, 30.420847, 29.620117, 28.937908 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.17, "volume": 33700, "typical_volume": 87610.0, "trend": 28.328021, "fair_value": 24.79927, "relative_strength": -1.008463, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.665299, "energy": 59.724751, "activity_lines": [ 30.46, 30.410291, 29.760754, 29.062855 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.379999, "volume": 127200, "typical_volume": 82570.0, "trend": 28.43536, "fair_value": 24.845776, "relative_strength": 0.204827, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.574286, "energy": 47.558026, "activity_lines": [ 30.419333, 30.423936, 29.903496, 29.19524 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.23, "volume": 23700, "typical_volume": 70790.0, "trend": 28.544777, "fair_value": 24.898538, "relative_strength": -0.14344, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.747536, "energy": 55.856669, "activity_lines": [ 30.646666, 30.581952, 30.107535, 29.37554 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }