{ "ticker": { "uuid": "71646dc9-8ce2-4267-a8dc-05f256669b6f", "symbol": "600439", "name": "Henan Rebecca Hair Products Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -76.378, "architecture_energy": 54.528, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.699, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.85, "rotation_up": 17.81, "upward_expansion": 7.12, "deceleration": 52.65, "rotation_down": 61.27, "downward_expansion": 78.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.032, 2.095091, 2.23881, 2.34529 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.85, "trend_reference": 2.491333, "distance_from_trend": -0.257426, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.864545, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.354173, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.080804, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.343972, "excess_performance": -0.300768, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.257426, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095924, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.354173, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.267868, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.310808, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102437, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.343972, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.229363, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 283920169, "relative_activity": 3.304382, "balance": 0.229363, "dry_up": 1.471389, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.12973, "annualized_volatility": 0.426041, "from_high_reference": -0.430769, "from_low_reference": 0.016484 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.491333, "fair_value_reference": 2.864545, "structural_low": 1.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.007435, "positive_rate": 0.484848, "directional_follow_through": 0.515152, "median_excess_return": -0.00401, "regime_survival": 0.787879, "best_return": 0.271111, "worst_return": -0.206294, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.00974, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.024186, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.793269, "worst_return": -0.123418, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.033955, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.023268, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 1.009615, "worst_return": -0.151125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.013054, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.166023, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007772, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.211594, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", 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62.88532, "activity_lines": [ 2.147333, 2.221455, 2.350095, 2.446559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.06, "volume": 74482335, "typical_volume": 75516076.8, "trend": 2.543667, "fair_value": 2.871312, "relative_strength": -22.649753, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.12096, "energy": 50.479683, "activity_lines": [ 2.12, 2.178, 2.313429, 2.413398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.16, "volume": 58983140, "typical_volume": 75784971.4, "trend": 2.522, "fair_value": 2.869018, "relative_strength": -18.227777, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.342794, "energy": 45.256974, "activity_lines": [ 2.132, 2.162182, 2.289524, 2.388645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.85, "volume": 283920169, "typical_volume": 85922325.2, "trend": 2.491333, "fair_value": 2.864545, "relative_strength": -31.080804, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.378317, "energy": 54.52754, "activity_lines": [ 2.032, 2.095091, 2.23881, 2.34529 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }