{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7164df1f-d192-4a8a-8556-562613023b31", "symbol": "HMEU", "name": "HSBC MSCI Europe UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 71.395, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.629, "architecture_energy": 59.449, "architecture_maturity": 56.014, "architecture_confidence": 69.954, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.47, "rotation_up": 54.64, "upward_expansion": 83.89, "deceleration": 64.54, "rotation_down": 26.8, "downward_expansion": 10.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.403333, 22.332455, 21.962052, 21.634138 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 22.469999, "trend_reference": 21.29174, "distance_from_trend": 0.055339, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.819742, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.260961, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.660755, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.074348, "excess_performance": -0.096543, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.055339, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040091, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.260961, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039996, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.056608, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000676, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.074348, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.919607, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14804, "relative_activity": 0.906986, "balance": 0.919607, "dry_up": 0.856763, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017682, "annualized_volatility": 0.146442, "from_high_reference": -0.014906, "from_low_reference": 0.219788 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.29174, "fair_value_reference": 17.819742, "structural_low": 19.076, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": 0.006733, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.005355, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.075871, "worst_return": -0.056532, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.019159, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.016623, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.078791, "worst_return": -0.081583, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.09035, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.032065, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.103636, "worst_return": -0.131492, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.870182, "energy": 76.881126, "activity_lines": [ 22.323, 22.183637, 21.748229, 21.467545 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.5, "volume": 18432, "typical_volume": 17174.05, "trend": 21.232426, "fair_value": 17.768217, "relative_strength": -2.844047, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.827686, "energy": 61.930967, "activity_lines": [ 22.383333, 22.268909, 21.861771, 21.554295 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.469999, "volume": 14804, "typical_volume": 16322.2, "trend": 21.29174, "fair_value": 17.819742, "relative_strength": -5.660755, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.628816, "energy": 59.449367, "activity_lines": [ 22.403333, 22.332455, 21.962052, 21.634138 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }