{ "ticker": { "uuid": "716814de-fb49-495a-bf64-698dcf595c3f", "symbol": "GFM", "name": "Griffin Mining Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 54.675, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.344, "architecture_energy": 23.797, "architecture_maturity": 8.602, "architecture_confidence": 41.909, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.86, "rotation_up": 15.73, "upward_expansion": 15.68, "deceleration": 59.12, "rotation_down": 57.89, "downward_expansion": 43.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 297.733333, 303.418182, 305.809524, 304.945161 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 293.0, "trend_reference": 302.85, "distance_from_trend": -0.032524, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 178.372436, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.64263, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.360929, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.05178, "excess_performance": -0.118059, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.032524, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.108731, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.64263, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.288753, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.043609, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.219543, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.05178, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.400528, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66944, "relative_activity": 0.593439, "balance": 2.400528, "dry_up": 0.84027, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061061, "annualized_volatility": 0.311447, "from_high_reference": -0.171736, "from_low_reference": 0.664773 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 302.85, "fair_value_reference": 178.372436, "structural_low": 247.223999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.028859, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": 0.015564, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.263514, "worst_return": -0.103774, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.093578, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.063395, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.423868, "worst_return": -0.173684, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.071388, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.056234, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.430267, "worst_return": -0.249218, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"energy": 32.40579, "activity_lines": [ 317.133333, 316.363636, 308.709524, 304.786022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 297.0, "volume": 107702, "typical_volume": 135942.95, "trend": 296.0, "fair_value": 172.739744, "relative_strength": 12.214842, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.976472, "energy": 12.800744, "activity_lines": [ 309.8, 313.090909, 307.707143, 304.970968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 300.0, "volume": 110272, "typical_volume": 122039.0, "trend": 298.2, "fair_value": 174.141026, "relative_strength": 11.645492, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.055737, "energy": 15.855491, "activity_lines": [ 305.133333, 310.618182, 307.142857, 305.229032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 308.0, "volume": 159012, "typical_volume": 119099.2, "trend": 300.466667, "fair_value": 175.608974, "relative_strength": 12.518186, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.335176, "energy": 18.221903, "activity_lines": [ 304.6, 309.745455, 307.471429, 305.86129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 295.0, "volume": 42925, "typical_volume": 114964.4, "trend": 301.733333, "fair_value": 176.996795, "relative_strength": 5.878315, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.470474, "energy": 17.502526, "activity_lines": [ 300.866667, 306.690909, 306.666667, 305.508602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 293.0, "volume": 66944, "typical_volume": 112806.85, "trend": 302.85, "fair_value": 178.372436, "relative_strength": 4.360929, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.344089, "energy": 23.797315, "activity_lines": [ 297.733333, 303.418182, 305.809524, 304.945161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }